True - but the surge in private paid ART cycles in the UK shows something has changed. Very low unemployment, may have increased wages and worker prospects to make more mothers think they can financially afford a child??
Longtime fan of your work, thanks for this Russell.
I don't think technological solutions like IVF are the fix here. Nor do I think generous govt. handouts will make people have more kids Very weak evidence of both when you look across many countries where IVF highly subsidized and/or generous welfare payments for mothers.
Example: Nordic countries have a reputation as being the best places on Earth to have kids.
Having a baby in Finland has been described as being “almost free,” all new moms get a “baby box” (containing 64 items including clothes, care products, and a first reading book), parents get nearly a combined full year of parental leave, and the government provides free universal daycare from eight months until kids start grammar school.
And yet Finland’s total fertility rate was 1.32 in 2022, the lowest birth rate since the country started keeping track in 1776. (The total fertility rate was 1.29 for women speaking national languages and 1.51 for foreign-language-speaking women.)
So much of life is status games and sending social signals to others. In order to fix the fertility problem you need to make having kids high status again.
Having large families used to be seen as "high status"/desirable
Vanderbilt had 12, Gould 6, Rockefeller 5, Sam Walton 4
Then things flipped. Having lots of kids became something only "the poors" did
The classic upper middle class family photos: two parents, two kids
Rust Belt: parent(s) swarmed by a litter of kids
The message: the underclass had no self-control. Small families were a mark of class and taste.
The newest status symbol for the rich: a big brood of kids. Maybe Elon changes this with his 11 kids.
I am already noticing this trend among "high status" people. e.g. managing director at Bain now has 5 instead of 2.
BTW, i'll be in London next month for business, would love to see @Russell
Drop me a line when you know your dates in London.
I dont disagree about how social norms drive fertility. Israel has the highest fertility rates of any rich nation, and very pro-natal culture for obvious reasons. But I think seeing freezing cycles surge even as NHS funding drops is a sign that a change in coming, if slower than I expected
Financial secuirty is one of the factors, but with 60% of the pregnant mothers not in the normal BMI range, it is a larger issue of carrying the birth. Dual incomes is another factor that matters. There is a lot of pyshcology at play vs economics..
Russell, thanks for sharing. Your perspective is so contrarian to mine. I welcome the challenge to my established bias.
I'll concede two points that you make... First, technology *does* enable women to overcome the natural fertility barrier around age 35. Second, the shift in age of the mother at birth is a *temporary* effect on depressing birth rate. Once the shift is over, the birth rate recovers to a long term, sustainable average.
Still, even if I concede these points, I can't see any data that suggests a baby boom is forthcoming. And, more than that, my lived experience as a corporate drone suggests that stability is decreasing, which is more likely to suppress birth rate than increase it. Add debt load, inflation, etc. Man, I just can't see any hope of a baby boom in the United States.
Again, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Much appreciated. I'll keep an open mind and keep learning.
What I am seeing is wages at the low end are increasing, while job security at the top end is decreasing... reverse of the last 20 years or so. I think that explains why managers want to buy bonds, but inflation continues unabated. Politically the move to pro-natal policies continues... but I see IVF as a two year lead on births - and they are pretty bullish.
Assisted Reproductive Technology can help conception, but it is the mother that needs to be support the development for the entire pregnancy.
For us to project a baby boom, we would need mothers to be healthier and provide correctly for births.. nature has a upper hand
True - but the surge in private paid ART cycles in the UK shows something has changed. Very low unemployment, may have increased wages and worker prospects to make more mothers think they can financially afford a child??
The more I read your research on Fertility, the more I think a physical exposure to this sector is attractive ie egg storage / clinic
Longtime fan of your work, thanks for this Russell.
I don't think technological solutions like IVF are the fix here. Nor do I think generous govt. handouts will make people have more kids Very weak evidence of both when you look across many countries where IVF highly subsidized and/or generous welfare payments for mothers.
Example: Nordic countries have a reputation as being the best places on Earth to have kids.
Having a baby in Finland has been described as being “almost free,” all new moms get a “baby box” (containing 64 items including clothes, care products, and a first reading book), parents get nearly a combined full year of parental leave, and the government provides free universal daycare from eight months until kids start grammar school.
And yet Finland’s total fertility rate was 1.32 in 2022, the lowest birth rate since the country started keeping track in 1776. (The total fertility rate was 1.29 for women speaking national languages and 1.51 for foreign-language-speaking women.)
So much of life is status games and sending social signals to others. In order to fix the fertility problem you need to make having kids high status again.
Having large families used to be seen as "high status"/desirable
Vanderbilt had 12, Gould 6, Rockefeller 5, Sam Walton 4
Then things flipped. Having lots of kids became something only "the poors" did
The classic upper middle class family photos: two parents, two kids
Rust Belt: parent(s) swarmed by a litter of kids
The message: the underclass had no self-control. Small families were a mark of class and taste.
The newest status symbol for the rich: a big brood of kids. Maybe Elon changes this with his 11 kids.
I am already noticing this trend among "high status" people. e.g. managing director at Bain now has 5 instead of 2.
BTW, i'll be in London next month for business, would love to see @Russell
Drop me a line when you know your dates in London.
I dont disagree about how social norms drive fertility. Israel has the highest fertility rates of any rich nation, and very pro-natal culture for obvious reasons. But I think seeing freezing cycles surge even as NHS funding drops is a sign that a change in coming, if slower than I expected
Hey Russell. I will be in town March 7. Shoot me an email Stephen@riskhedge.com and we can organize something.
Cheers.
Financial secuirty is one of the factors, but with 60% of the pregnant mothers not in the normal BMI range, it is a larger issue of carrying the birth. Dual incomes is another factor that matters. There is a lot of pyshcology at play vs economics..
Russell, thanks for sharing. Your perspective is so contrarian to mine. I welcome the challenge to my established bias.
I'll concede two points that you make... First, technology *does* enable women to overcome the natural fertility barrier around age 35. Second, the shift in age of the mother at birth is a *temporary* effect on depressing birth rate. Once the shift is over, the birth rate recovers to a long term, sustainable average.
Still, even if I concede these points, I can't see any data that suggests a baby boom is forthcoming. And, more than that, my lived experience as a corporate drone suggests that stability is decreasing, which is more likely to suppress birth rate than increase it. Add debt load, inflation, etc. Man, I just can't see any hope of a baby boom in the United States.
Again, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Much appreciated. I'll keep an open mind and keep learning.
What I am seeing is wages at the low end are increasing, while job security at the top end is decreasing... reverse of the last 20 years or so. I think that explains why managers want to buy bonds, but inflation continues unabated. Politically the move to pro-natal policies continues... but I see IVF as a two year lead on births - and they are pretty bullish.
I suggest you go research mRNA Covid vaccines and fertility