Longtime fan of your work, thanks for this Russell.
I don't think technological solutions like IVF are the fix here. Nor do I think generous govt. handouts will make people have more kids Very weak evidence of both when you look across many countries where IVF highly subsidized and/or generous welfare payments for mothers.
Longtime fan of your work, thanks for this Russell.
I don't think technological solutions like IVF are the fix here. Nor do I think generous govt. handouts will make people have more kids Very weak evidence of both when you look across many countries where IVF highly subsidized and/or generous welfare payments for mothers.
Example: Nordic countries have a reputation as being the best places on Earth to have kids.
Having a baby in Finland has been described as being “almost free,” all new moms get a “baby box” (containing 64 items including clothes, care products, and a first reading book), parents get nearly a combined full year of parental leave, and the government provides free universal daycare from eight months until kids start grammar school.
And yet Finland’s total fertility rate was 1.32 in 2022, the lowest birth rate since the country started keeping track in 1776. (The total fertility rate was 1.29 for women speaking national languages and 1.51 for foreign-language-speaking women.)
So much of life is status games and sending social signals to others. In order to fix the fertility problem you need to make having kids high status again.
Having large families used to be seen as "high status"/desirable
Vanderbilt had 12, Gould 6, Rockefeller 5, Sam Walton 4
Then things flipped. Having lots of kids became something only "the poors" did
The classic upper middle class family photos: two parents, two kids
Rust Belt: parent(s) swarmed by a litter of kids
The message: the underclass had no self-control. Small families were a mark of class and taste.
The newest status symbol for the rich: a big brood of kids. Maybe Elon changes this with his 11 kids.
I am already noticing this trend among "high status" people. e.g. managing director at Bain now has 5 instead of 2.
BTW, i'll be in London next month for business, would love to see @Russell
Drop me a line when you know your dates in London.
I dont disagree about how social norms drive fertility. Israel has the highest fertility rates of any rich nation, and very pro-natal culture for obvious reasons. But I think seeing freezing cycles surge even as NHS funding drops is a sign that a change in coming, if slower than I expected
Longtime fan of your work, thanks for this Russell.
I don't think technological solutions like IVF are the fix here. Nor do I think generous govt. handouts will make people have more kids Very weak evidence of both when you look across many countries where IVF highly subsidized and/or generous welfare payments for mothers.
Example: Nordic countries have a reputation as being the best places on Earth to have kids.
Having a baby in Finland has been described as being “almost free,” all new moms get a “baby box” (containing 64 items including clothes, care products, and a first reading book), parents get nearly a combined full year of parental leave, and the government provides free universal daycare from eight months until kids start grammar school.
And yet Finland’s total fertility rate was 1.32 in 2022, the lowest birth rate since the country started keeping track in 1776. (The total fertility rate was 1.29 for women speaking national languages and 1.51 for foreign-language-speaking women.)
So much of life is status games and sending social signals to others. In order to fix the fertility problem you need to make having kids high status again.
Having large families used to be seen as "high status"/desirable
Vanderbilt had 12, Gould 6, Rockefeller 5, Sam Walton 4
Then things flipped. Having lots of kids became something only "the poors" did
The classic upper middle class family photos: two parents, two kids
Rust Belt: parent(s) swarmed by a litter of kids
The message: the underclass had no self-control. Small families were a mark of class and taste.
The newest status symbol for the rich: a big brood of kids. Maybe Elon changes this with his 11 kids.
I am already noticing this trend among "high status" people. e.g. managing director at Bain now has 5 instead of 2.
BTW, i'll be in London next month for business, would love to see @Russell
Drop me a line when you know your dates in London.
I dont disagree about how social norms drive fertility. Israel has the highest fertility rates of any rich nation, and very pro-natal culture for obvious reasons. But I think seeing freezing cycles surge even as NHS funding drops is a sign that a change in coming, if slower than I expected
Hey Russell. I will be in town March 7. Shoot me an email Stephen@riskhedge.com and we can organize something.
Cheers.