Really great piece. Seems like the next clash as you mention (like China) is Motivation v Micro and is probably best evidenced (for me) in Oil & Gas underinvestment over the last decade or so, but now the Motivation needs/wants more domestic production while the Micro incentives aren't there.
Russell, Im positioning for a sharp slowdown in growth/inflation based on leading indicators and an agressive FED tightening. I like short Oil, short Equities and long TLT here over next several months. Is it possible to see sharp reversions in TLT with these type flows and then a continuation of trend after next FED pivot?
I have been a fan of yours for a long while, and have been reading your pieces since 2014 or so. You are especially good at connecting unrelated themes and issues and then forming a conviction and acting on it. That said, I noticed that and you will probably agree, you are not specialist on any thing, not macro, not fundamentals, nthing, just a smart observer. Dont get it wrong, nothing wrong with that. I have seen your calls go haywire a few times and in each one, my observation was that, you overstayed your welcome as forces (fundamentals, macro, micro, what have you) were changing but you could not grasp them. And...you did not close the positions. In my humble opinion, in those circumstances, you need to either close the positions no matter what or have some in house expertise, which I doubt suits your style. Another weakness I noticed was focusing on niche weird markets and trying to rationalize your calls...i.e. Korean weird options, Japanese banks, etc. etc.. Hope this does not come across wrong. I do enjoy your ideas !
I like re-shorting TLT here, but curious on what your views are in terms of the game theory being played behind the scenes here with regards to retirement accounts getting absolutely clobbered. I mean, at a certain point (given US midterms in Nov.) this is going to be a hot topic & I can't help but think they have to save bonds. Any signals you recommend to track that would indicate this is coming? I'm watching fwd. inflation exp. ($RINF + others), $XME price action, etc. for what it's worth
Really great piece. Seems like the next clash as you mention (like China) is Motivation v Micro and is probably best evidenced (for me) in Oil & Gas underinvestment over the last decade or so, but now the Motivation needs/wants more domestic production while the Micro incentives aren't there.
Russell, Im positioning for a sharp slowdown in growth/inflation based on leading indicators and an agressive FED tightening. I like short Oil, short Equities and long TLT here over next several months. Is it possible to see sharp reversions in TLT with these type flows and then a continuation of trend after next FED pivot?
I have been a fan of yours for a long while, and have been reading your pieces since 2014 or so. You are especially good at connecting unrelated themes and issues and then forming a conviction and acting on it. That said, I noticed that and you will probably agree, you are not specialist on any thing, not macro, not fundamentals, nthing, just a smart observer. Dont get it wrong, nothing wrong with that. I have seen your calls go haywire a few times and in each one, my observation was that, you overstayed your welcome as forces (fundamentals, macro, micro, what have you) were changing but you could not grasp them. And...you did not close the positions. In my humble opinion, in those circumstances, you need to either close the positions no matter what or have some in house expertise, which I doubt suits your style. Another weakness I noticed was focusing on niche weird markets and trying to rationalize your calls...i.e. Korean weird options, Japanese banks, etc. etc.. Hope this does not come across wrong. I do enjoy your ideas !
I like re-shorting TLT here, but curious on what your views are in terms of the game theory being played behind the scenes here with regards to retirement accounts getting absolutely clobbered. I mean, at a certain point (given US midterms in Nov.) this is going to be a hot topic & I can't help but think they have to save bonds. Any signals you recommend to track that would indicate this is coming? I'm watching fwd. inflation exp. ($RINF + others), $XME price action, etc. for what it's worth