29 Comments

Trump did not "lead an invasion into the capital". There was a large crowd that got out of control and it turned into a riot. Nothing was orchestrated or pre-planned, this was spontaneous. There are some in congress that say 200+ federal undercover agents were in the crowd, possibly provoking things. The whole thing was oddly very "thinly policed" with no fences, poor crowd contro, etc.. Especially with the size of the crowd and sensitivity of it. Knowing how large the crowd would be Trump offered the speaker of the house the national guard days before, she turned it down. There were concussion grenades, tear gas, pepper spray, mace, rubber bullets deployed on crowd provoking them before they battled police and went up to the capital. It's almost like the other side "wanted it to happen"?

I find your view of American politics to very typical of foreigners views who don't live in the USA, yet think they know what is going on. You must rely 100% on left wing propaganda BBC and CNN for all your information about the USA? I often get into heated debates when I travel abroad with many folks around the world who have these rediculous views on America & American politics. I don't know where they get them. It's like their only news source is left wing biased globalist BBC. You are treating all the corporate mainstream media anti-Trump propaganda like gospel and believing every word of it.

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Well that cheered me up, Russell 😐. Tough to disagree with much of it.

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As in everything in life, timing is the key. I fear your existential concerns are well described by Howe's 4th Turning concept with the question, when will it arrive, or at least the denouement arrive? Brexit and Trump, and Geert Wilders are symptoms of the ongoing disillusionment that exists for the man on the street. rather than simply focusing on the fact that folks like Gates, or Musk, or Bezos are really rich, I think people are much more disgusted and concerned with the fact that people like Fauci and Biden and Clinton and Obama got rich from their time in government. Gerhard Schroder and Angela Merkel sold Germany down the drain for personal benefit. It is these actions that will bring about the revolution.

as to the age of labor, that will almost certainly be the ultimate outcome, but there could be some difficulty between now and then. in the end, I have agreed with your analysis since I first stumbled on it and think the GLD/TLT trade has much further to run, although it will also see some volatility

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Trump was not a serious threat to the system. As was evidenced by his first term, he is easily distracted and derailed. Like his businesses, he wasn't going to do much besides stick his brand on an existing product. He let Paul Ryan totally subvert his economic agenda (based on campaign rhetoric) with the budget and he went out and sold it as the greatest budget ever.

Had the ruling class reacted with something along the lines of, give the guy a few wins and he'll fade away, they would have blunted the populist push. Instead, they lost their minds. Then went on to enact extremist alternatives.

Trump tapped into anti-war sentiment? They start a war with Russia and threaten war with China.

Trump tapped into anti-immigration? They throw the border completely wide open, cut welfare benefits for poor Americans and give the cash to the migrants.

Trump tapped into wage angst? They ramp the stock market to enrich themselves and dump the cost of high inflation on the workers.

Jailing political opponents and online censorship went wild too. Then came Jan 6, which apparently had a lot of federal agents as provocateurs. The story of that day isn't the riot, but the reaction. The ruling class is very scared of something. RFK is getting similar treatment as Trump given his threat level. Maybe things are far more fragile then they appear? Or they're really evil? Whatever it is, the cycle theories of Turchin, Strauss & Howe and Socionomics all point to a major culmination and revolutionary event over the next decade, ranging from the current regime consolidating into something very close to becoming like China's CCP to regime dissidents moving towards something more like 1920s America with open markets, closed migration and non-interventionist foreign policy.

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Since Marxism is effectively banned in the public psyche in the USA I think the public there lacks the cognitive instruments to realise what’s going on. Which is a large part of the problem

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In the U.S., politicians and technocrats are owned by donors and corporations through a revolving door system.

Trump's election in 2016 was a response to that in hope of pro-labor policy but he failed.

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An excellent post, though of course disturbing. I am 77. Over my lifetime, I have never known weaker political leadership in the West. In the U.S., the political system has frozen up. Since the GFC, there has been no one within the system -- Keynes; Roosevelt-- who has been able to understand the system's problems and effect solutions. So, the tendency (ultimately) is to move outside the system. And we are starting to see that.

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Russell, I agree that it's only China (and possibly Russia, due to war related nationalisation and defense wages) that have gone pro-Labour

The US and Japan, amongst others, are still captured by capital interests

However in the case that US institutions collapse and Trump creates a Peronist dictatorship, isn't that the ultimate bull case for Gold and bearish for Treasuries?

What else could possibly outperform in such a scenario? Bitcoin? Oil?

Can you run an analysis on what worked for locals after LatAm coups?

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Isn't rising inequality a side-effect of increasing overall wealth. The lower bound is always 0 but the upper bound will be ever increasing as overall wealth is growing.

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Capitalism is a greed cult

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I’m not sure if you’re viewing it through the lens of a European/Australian but I would think things like the IRA are definitely pro labor right?

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November was the highest level of corporate buybacks in history.

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hey Russell, I am in that category and I can totally understand why are you worried because a lot of people in my generation are hugely frustrated by the situation as it is. I’ve been thinking about it recently myself and I wonder if the main issue is the fact that anyone under the age of 40 really struggles to either afford a house to live in of a size that you can raise a family and or justify the huge debt you have to go into to buy a house . my take is that if you just created a tax on houses with empty rooms, so any dwelling that has an empty room, gets taxed at a certain rate that ratchets up over time it'd free up alot of supply in housing. you start low and then every year it would increase so that you would have this tax that continually just ramps up on people who are renting for Airbnb or who are old and sitting on three or four empty bedrooms. My parents are in this category and they don’t really wanna move until they die, but the tax would force them to. wondering what your thoughts on there

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This is such an odd post that showed up in my feed. Income inequality has roughly stayed constant since the early 2010s and wage growth is currently exceeding inflation. The US went deciding pro labor since 2020, first with the stimulus packages, and then with the election of Biden, who has doubled down on industrial policies that use union labor and appointing pro union employees to federal agencies. By almost every metric the US economy is going bananas. Indeed, when polled, 70% of Americans think their personal finances are doing well

The populist backlash, which has been well documented, seem to stem mostly from perceived immigration/racism.

It’s important to have some existential dread, and there are absolutely problems (climate change, Trump) but one should also reflect on why you feel so gloomy. I don’t think anything about todays economy is worse than the 30s, 40s, 60s, 70s or 80s, and we survived then too.

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Western Civ is at the tail end of a 500 year arc starting in the late middle ages with discovery of new world & renaissance. China has a cultural system completely different from the west. Mirroring economic models is only one portion of the equation that produces the end product. It is passe to consider non-economic or political causes for societal outcomes... in the West. There is a thread floating around Twitter about Wang Huning's book on America and his criticisms of it... in the early 90s.

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