Isn’t it all a kind of Minsky cycle? Peace lowers interest rates and increases asset prices which increases inequality? Could it also be that the resulting wealth increases the temptation of countries to be more belligerent and/or take more risk so the crisis/conflict that leads to more socialism is actually baked into the long peace? I see the same thing in the university protests.
Capitalism stems from freedom and a merit-based system that allows everyone who wants to better themselves able to better themselves without a government that keeps them down. As Milton Friedman says, capitalism has propelled more people out of poverty than any other form of government by far.
Don’t disagree, but political power also flows to those with the most capital - leaving those without capital only to attack capitalism. Modern democracy, should have solved this problem, with one person one vote. I hope that is still the case
I would like to hear comments on the effect of AI and the eventual elimination of a wide swath of jobs and what I believe will be the rise of Universal Basic Income.
I think I am going to have to come to terms with AI - or if not AI the feeling that China and US are inventing the new world, and the rest of the world needs to catch up.... UBI i will look at another time
Nice analysis, which makes much sense. I have written about the move to fiscal dominance due to the cost of enforcing the energy transition this creating a new political divide. But with rising debt levels governments are running out of road in terms of debt capacity. They must start to inflate their debts away via financial repression.
Very interesting thoughts here Russell. perhaps the follow-on question is, is inequality destined to result in the rise of the left? while there will always be some people who are unhappy with the current situation, whatever it may be, peace seems to be worth an awful lot. is that too much to pay?
Are political cycles predictable? Do long periods of conservative rule tend to be followed by revolution? Will there always be ambitious politicians willing to feed off inequality?
in truth, I think long periods of any particular type of rule, whether conservative or liberal, result in a revolution of some sort. my observation is people are fickle, and even when things are going well, or perhaps because things are going well, find more things to bitch about and drive insurrection.
If you need to conscript labour you also need to conscript capital. It makes perfect sense.
Isn’t it all a kind of Minsky cycle? Peace lowers interest rates and increases asset prices which increases inequality? Could it also be that the resulting wealth increases the temptation of countries to be more belligerent and/or take more risk so the crisis/conflict that leads to more socialism is actually baked into the long peace? I see the same thing in the university protests.
Capitalism stems from freedom and a merit-based system that allows everyone who wants to better themselves able to better themselves without a government that keeps them down. As Milton Friedman says, capitalism has propelled more people out of poverty than any other form of government by far.
Don’t disagree, but political power also flows to those with the most capital - leaving those without capital only to attack capitalism. Modern democracy, should have solved this problem, with one person one vote. I hope that is still the case
I would like to hear comments on the effect of AI and the eventual elimination of a wide swath of jobs and what I believe will be the rise of Universal Basic Income.
I think I am going to have to come to terms with AI - or if not AI the feeling that China and US are inventing the new world, and the rest of the world needs to catch up.... UBI i will look at another time
Nice analysis, which makes much sense. I have written about the move to fiscal dominance due to the cost of enforcing the energy transition this creating a new political divide. But with rising debt levels governments are running out of road in terms of debt capacity. They must start to inflate their debts away via financial repression.
Very interesting thoughts here Russell. perhaps the follow-on question is, is inequality destined to result in the rise of the left? while there will always be some people who are unhappy with the current situation, whatever it may be, peace seems to be worth an awful lot. is that too much to pay?
Are political cycles predictable? Do long periods of conservative rule tend to be followed by revolution? Will there always be ambitious politicians willing to feed off inequality?
in truth, I think long periods of any particular type of rule, whether conservative or liberal, result in a revolution of some sort. my observation is people are fickle, and even when things are going well, or perhaps because things are going well, find more things to bitch about and drive insurrection.