When you find someone, let us know. I want to follow them too. I’ve been sifting between people. I really like Marko Papic and his theory of constraints but he missed Putin’s invasion. Michael Kao got the oil story right. But I’ve yet to find anyone who has a good view across all of it. It’s a bit like investing I guess, short term moves are hard to predict because they rely so much on individual actions whereas the constraints emerge over long periods of time.
Marko Papic is the first person that came to my mind as well. Not for Brumby, but more for my own "where do I get smarter on trading politics".
Pippa Malmgrem is another name that I think of, I would venture to say that she's actually quite a leading thinker in this realm (and has been doing it longer than most).
Love you (and your thoughts) Russell and have been a very happy subscriber for a few years but a word of counsel. As someone who spent nearly 3 decades on the sell side, that is the most 'buy side' sign off I think I have ever heard. I would have zeroed you on the next hot IPO out of principle ;). I am watching Scott Bessent right now. I frankly consider him to be the Forrest Gump of Global Macro (i.e. just happened to be in the room when something interesting in macro happened). Met once and was underwhelmed. He was gifted AUM when he left Soros. He rewarded that gifted AUM with lousy performance. He now thinks he can be 'Murica's bond SALESMAN. He has a terrible 'support team' in LickNut and 'the boss' but is frankly looking worse and worse at his (thankless) job by the day. Smart-arsed buy side folk do not have all the answers... You NEVER know your time has been wasted until a lot later. It is these guys' jobs to call you as a new fund. Cut them some slack.
I would recommend subscribing to Doomberg on their pro tier. Although they don't do specific political analysis they do very good analysis on energy and often will delve into politics.
I have not - but I do see UK keep in touch with UK politicos.... and they all knew a few months ago it would be Reform v Labour. Conservatives are dead as a party...
Sorry - judging whether something is a waste of time or not is whether it produces a clear forecast of what is likely to happen - and whether it happens or not. Macro used to provide clear forecasts - but not so much now...
social media + technology is a game changer. One needs to cultivate a diverse enough network to have a diversity of opinion and a mechanism to filter. Also not be subject to the platform's algo
I might argue that in the current environment, there is nobody who brings any consistency in political analysis to a conversation because analyzing the current administration is impossible. there is no consistency, or at least there are too many zigs and zags to identify an underlying theme. In fact, I believe that is one of the goals is to keep everyone off balance by changing stances as deemed necessary or for a response. As well, the Trump administration has been flooding the zone with so much happening at once, it remains extremely difficult to even keep up.
While I am not a fund manager, nor do I have any desire to be one, my take on macro is it is a combination of economics and politics, and I refer to Michael Every who I believe has nailed the current concept of economic statecraft, rather than economic policy being the new reality. economics and politics are more tightly aligned today than we have seen in the past (and I have been doing this for more than 40 years), but it has always been the political part that is hard.
Consider that during Volcker's time at the Fed, nobody even knew who the other FOMC members were, they never spoke in public. And Volcker never told anybody what he was doing, market participants had to figure it out by the Fed's actions, not the words.
the trick was to keep position sizing large enough for gains but small enough to be able to get out. we could be heading back where the difference between the current cacophony of voices and the total absence of voices lead to the same result.
I feel like the rise of social media makes analysis easier not harder.... Trump is connected to voters directly by social media so his messaging is easy to read
I would not waste your time. Strong freshman international relations vibes. Hard pass from my perspective (and I know I am not alone). And to be clear I have nothing agin Rabobank or Luton.
He has an interesting framework - which I like. helps organise thoughts... the problem is predictive power... but maybe thats the point - no one can really predict politics
has he though? they have changed amounts and timing regularly. I would argue his over riding goal is to do what he thinks will benefit the US, but his views and that of the intelligentsia differ somewhat these days.
But also, you probably don't know him from his time when he first became famous in NY and had the show, The Apprentice. he was volatile then and remains so now.
From a political perspective, wouldn't a stronger Yen help Japan pivot from an economy relying on exports to one relying on domestic demand? Also would be a bargaining chip in a trade deal with Trump no? Bessent seems quite focused on the currency aspect of trade imbalances. These are my reasons for being long Yen (via long-dated options), but I agree that positioning seems very long (a dollar bounce in the short run wouldn't surprise me), curious for your thoughts on my rationale.
This should be good. George Hosts a great space.https://x.com/gnoble79/status/1919747696287506677
When you find someone, let us know. I want to follow them too. I’ve been sifting between people. I really like Marko Papic and his theory of constraints but he missed Putin’s invasion. Michael Kao got the oil story right. But I’ve yet to find anyone who has a good view across all of it. It’s a bit like investing I guess, short term moves are hard to predict because they rely so much on individual actions whereas the constraints emerge over long periods of time.
Marko Papic is the first person that came to my mind as well. Not for Brumby, but more for my own "where do I get smarter on trading politics".
Pippa Malmgrem is another name that I think of, I would venture to say that she's actually quite a leading thinker in this realm (and has been doing it longer than most).
Love you (and your thoughts) Russell and have been a very happy subscriber for a few years but a word of counsel. As someone who spent nearly 3 decades on the sell side, that is the most 'buy side' sign off I think I have ever heard. I would have zeroed you on the next hot IPO out of principle ;). I am watching Scott Bessent right now. I frankly consider him to be the Forrest Gump of Global Macro (i.e. just happened to be in the room when something interesting in macro happened). Met once and was underwhelmed. He was gifted AUM when he left Soros. He rewarded that gifted AUM with lousy performance. He now thinks he can be 'Murica's bond SALESMAN. He has a terrible 'support team' in LickNut and 'the boss' but is frankly looking worse and worse at his (thankless) job by the day. Smart-arsed buy side folk do not have all the answers... You NEVER know your time has been wasted until a lot later. It is these guys' jobs to call you as a new fund. Cut them some slack.
I get that people need to call... but I thought I would save them some time!
Alpha comes from the strangest places...
I would recommend subscribing to Doomberg on their pro tier. Although they don't do specific political analysis they do very good analysis on energy and often will delve into politics.
I have found Doomberg to be interesting - but value destroying when applied to markets
two questions
- have you made a trip to Washington DC lately? may be worthwhile to get acquainted with non-braindead think tank people
- how are you supposed to judge what's a waste of time or not? seems like you're looking for some indicia of rigor or credibility?
I have not - but I do see UK keep in touch with UK politicos.... and they all knew a few months ago it would be Reform v Labour. Conservatives are dead as a party...
right, never thought about how market moving such info is. DC, seems like every day markets are being moved
i see you didn’t engage with #2 but it seems like a tough situation with classic principal agent issues
Sorry - judging whether something is a waste of time or not is whether it produces a clear forecast of what is likely to happen - and whether it happens or not. Macro used to provide clear forecasts - but not so much now...
social media + technology is a game changer. One needs to cultivate a diverse enough network to have a diversity of opinion and a mechanism to filter. Also not be subject to the platform's algo
I might argue that in the current environment, there is nobody who brings any consistency in political analysis to a conversation because analyzing the current administration is impossible. there is no consistency, or at least there are too many zigs and zags to identify an underlying theme. In fact, I believe that is one of the goals is to keep everyone off balance by changing stances as deemed necessary or for a response. As well, the Trump administration has been flooding the zone with so much happening at once, it remains extremely difficult to even keep up.
While I am not a fund manager, nor do I have any desire to be one, my take on macro is it is a combination of economics and politics, and I refer to Michael Every who I believe has nailed the current concept of economic statecraft, rather than economic policy being the new reality. economics and politics are more tightly aligned today than we have seen in the past (and I have been doing this for more than 40 years), but it has always been the political part that is hard.
Consider that during Volcker's time at the Fed, nobody even knew who the other FOMC members were, they never spoke in public. And Volcker never told anybody what he was doing, market participants had to figure it out by the Fed's actions, not the words.
the trick was to keep position sizing large enough for gains but small enough to be able to get out. we could be heading back where the difference between the current cacophony of voices and the total absence of voices lead to the same result.
I feel like the rise of social media makes analysis easier not harder.... Trump is connected to voters directly by social media so his messaging is easy to read
maybe, but the one thing that is true is it changes every day
He has been consistent on tariffs
Also the second person to mention michael every so will take a.look
I would not waste your time. Strong freshman international relations vibes. Hard pass from my perspective (and I know I am not alone). And to be clear I have nothing agin Rabobank or Luton.
He has an interesting framework - which I like. helps organise thoughts... the problem is predictive power... but maybe thats the point - no one can really predict politics
Also consistent on focus on.blue collar workers
has he though? they have changed amounts and timing regularly. I would argue his over riding goal is to do what he thinks will benefit the US, but his views and that of the intelligentsia differ somewhat these days.
But also, you probably don't know him from his time when he first became famous in NY and had the show, The Apprentice. he was volatile then and remains so now.
Not an offer for help just a comment ;-)
From a political perspective, wouldn't a stronger Yen help Japan pivot from an economy relying on exports to one relying on domestic demand? Also would be a bargaining chip in a trade deal with Trump no? Bessent seems quite focused on the currency aspect of trade imbalances. These are my reasons for being long Yen (via long-dated options), but I agree that positioning seems very long (a dollar bounce in the short run wouldn't surprise me), curious for your thoughts on my rationale.
Hmm 30.years of Yen strength didn't help much to rebalance the economy.
Tbh - US economy is surging... so why should.the Japanese allow.the Yen to strengthen?