Ha-ha! I am safe at home already, in the U.S. Please keep up the posts. I love your insights. I found you on Real Vision several years ago. Good luck with the new adventure.
I will probably add something like a transcript to the next one - so people have the option of watching video, just audio, or reading. This was a test to see if video worked or not. Thanks for the comment
Great post. I struggle a bit with your proposition that long-end yields have primarily fallen due to political preferences. I agree it's not all due to demographics, but usually the argument is demographics + poor productivity + massive debt overhang = low R* and low long-end yields. You arguments on food inflation and a possible regime change after 40 years make a lot of sense. Also, you cut the pony tail! Great work, keep it up.
The other way is to think that all parts of society - government, private sector, bureaucracy are acting to maximise "capital" - and that leads to interest rates being very low - as that maximises capital values... profit maximising also leads to costs being kept low.. included wages and food prices.
I am not 100% convinced either - but its a decent theory to start with, and then adjust as necessary
Hi Russell-I like this format.I like looking at people when they talk.I'm obviously not a millenial.
hi Russel, great blog. Really enjoying it.
Hi Russell, I liked the video and the slides. I was listening to it as I was driving around. Thanks for sharing.
Don't crash!
Ha-ha! I am safe at home already, in the U.S. Please keep up the posts. I love your insights. I found you on Real Vision several years ago. Good luck with the new adventure.
Thanks, liked the format. Good to keep the duration to around 10' +/-. Appreciated.
Good going, given this is a recording is it feasible to add subtitles or a transcript?
I will probably add something like a transcript to the next one - so people have the option of watching video, just audio, or reading. This was a test to see if video worked or not. Thanks for the comment
Great post. I struggle a bit with your proposition that long-end yields have primarily fallen due to political preferences. I agree it's not all due to demographics, but usually the argument is demographics + poor productivity + massive debt overhang = low R* and low long-end yields. You arguments on food inflation and a possible regime change after 40 years make a lot of sense. Also, you cut the pony tail! Great work, keep it up.
The other way is to think that all parts of society - government, private sector, bureaucracy are acting to maximise "capital" - and that leads to interest rates being very low - as that maximises capital values... profit maximising also leads to costs being kept low.. included wages and food prices.
I am not 100% convinced either - but its a decent theory to start with, and then adjust as necessary
Good video, don't skimp on the slides. More data points the better.
tricky- there seems to be a limit on size of file I can post... will try to do slides only posts..
Like this format - you are a good orator
Thank you.