The ISDA-SIMM suggested that there should have been a dangerous amount of leverage be in oil spread trades. Given the moves we have seen, clearinghouses should have seen more problems.
For signpost of intention of major withdrawal of liquidity particularly from BoJ ( presumably fed qt / USA very large negative fiscal impulse - are meaningful but not critical liquidity drain tipping point ) should we assume a 2-3-4% strengthening in yen as confirmation ?
Hey Russell, have you ever considered analysing the data from CrossBorder Capital (Michael J Howell) together with your view regarding Japan (Saudi A. of capital)?
Because they only track liquidity worldwide... seems like a natural way to converge to your ideias...
Thanks for this
For signpost of intention of major withdrawal of liquidity particularly from BoJ ( presumably fed qt / USA very large negative fiscal impulse - are meaningful but not critical liquidity drain tipping point ) should we assume a 2-3-4% strengthening in yen as confirmation ?
I think you have to actually wait for japanese short rates to rise....
Hey Russell, have you ever considered analysing the data from CrossBorder Capital (Michael J Howell) together with your view regarding Japan (Saudi A. of capital)?
Because they only track liquidity worldwide... seems like a natural way to converge to your ideias...
Thanks again
NIIP data and BIS data seems to capture it pretty well - and free. I can do a post on BIS data if you like
that would be Awesome! :)
👍👍👍👍👍