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Andy Fately's avatar

I wonder if left a right are the appropriate words to describe politics anymore, or at least if they have any meaning today related to the past. Populism is on the rise around the world and I might argue its opposite is elitism. What we have seen from the old left is elitism and globalism and that is what is under attack

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Will's avatar
Nov 22Edited

In the UK the Liz Truss moment caused long gilt yields to spike and made her premiership the shortest on record. If you are expecting higher yields for many developed countries surely this is political suicide for those involved or are you expecting slow rise over the course of several years or a decade or two? Is CHF a good alternative to gold if investors want lower volatility?

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Russell Clark's avatar

Even as subsequent governments walked back Truss's budget commitments - UK yields have stayed high. It is not the politicians markets are worried about - its the voters. And the voters want spending

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Nicholas's avatar

In AU since ~1970 house prices have increased ~9% CAGR

Since 1977 average M3 annual growth 9.6% (when series started in RBA report)

The real inflation rate is baked in the cake and the cake is Australian property prices

IDK what changes that, I used to be a property bear, but hooms always win

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Russell Clark's avatar

Fair point... but I think the politics of rising home prices is getting toxic... so something has to give.

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Clement's avatar

If G7 bond yields go any higher aren't governments insolvent? I expect capital controls in such a situation.

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Russell Clark's avatar

Some sort of coercion seems likely

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Rob B's avatar

Fair enough. Today is a horror show for the bulls. Your positioning looks good.

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Russell Clark's avatar

Lots of churn in markets - but the themes seem to be playing out

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Rob B's avatar

There is so little to own right now. Can even gold work if the Nasdaq is in free-fall? I assume margin calls mean gold falls or can institutional & Sovereign buying push gold higher even with Treasury yields up and equities down? I assume you are not necessarily expecting gold higher in absolute terms, just that it is a relative story?

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Russell Clark's avatar

Well that's why its long gold v short equities....

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