are you not possibly cherry picking Denmark, a population with 6 mio with the most favorable gender policies in the world (day care etc) and arguably most adherent social norms. DK also starts from a much higher reproduction rate of 1.77.
South Korea 1.10; Singapore 1.15; Japan 1.38 are descending towards extinction in a few generations. They have all tried various policies for decades but have been unable to reverse the trajectory.
The fact is that the tradeoff between a professional career at Goldman sachs or a law firm without children and children with a compromised career is a bum deal for talented women in most parts of the world for educated women.
What makes you so confident that DK is the new normal rather than the extreme exception ?
I first started looking at this about 6 years ago with Swedish data - where there were some signs, but it was not clear cut. Australian and Danish data are given a very clear shift - in my view at least.
Japan is a world leader in IVF in many ways, but now does have higher birth rates than places like SK which are laggards in IVF.
Confident is not the right word - but I have learnt that government policy is very effective when applied consistently. The one factor still missing I think is raising wage rates to levels where it is possible to raise children without having to work at GS or a law firm - but here again there is sign of change.
As you say - current birth rates in Asia are pointing towards extinction - but I find such an outcome hard to believe - and when I look at Chinese policy, they are making a big shift to favour labour over capital, and reduce the cost of raising children. All circumstantial evidence, but all point to a trend change.
Finally, birth rates are a lagging indicator. When I look at data from Australia listed IVF providers, there is a step change higher in cycles - which is a leading indicator.
Just a thought that due to global lockdowns there could be a slowing of house formations as people that would have met each other didn't meet each other for 2 years (zoom dates aside). I wonder would this connection lag be material in delaying your thesis?
What we see from Australian listed IVF providers was that there was no slowdown in the IVF cycles in Australia during covid - a trend borne out with danish data.
True, but they are the more established relationships, no? Its the lag on new relationships that could create a slight delay on house formations in younger generations. i.e. they never met at that pub or at Fresher's Week due to lockdowns.
Read your piece before watching the video, and was looking for how you were tying it to markets.
There isn't enough accessible data to really dig into this but I note from what you presented that in 2014 Denmark had around 6.5% ART births with general media reporting it up around 10% in subsequent years - don't know where it is now. There definitely was a lot of shagging going on during lockdown so it would not surprise me if numbers were robust across many countries.
But certainly the legal loopholes and law changes has made Denmark a centre for ART worldwide. Yet I am not expecting the baby boom you describe. As some one in the biomedical field I could easily go way of track here, so I will leave it at you hold too much store in technology.
Hmm - not sure about that. Data on multiple pregnancies for example show that IVF techniques have been improving over time, which should reduce premature and underweight births. Technology has a way of improving over time
are you not possibly cherry picking Denmark, a population with 6 mio with the most favorable gender policies in the world (day care etc) and arguably most adherent social norms. DK also starts from a much higher reproduction rate of 1.77.
South Korea 1.10; Singapore 1.15; Japan 1.38 are descending towards extinction in a few generations. They have all tried various policies for decades but have been unable to reverse the trajectory.
The fact is that the tradeoff between a professional career at Goldman sachs or a law firm without children and children with a compromised career is a bum deal for talented women in most parts of the world for educated women.
What makes you so confident that DK is the new normal rather than the extreme exception ?
I first started looking at this about 6 years ago with Swedish data - where there were some signs, but it was not clear cut. Australian and Danish data are given a very clear shift - in my view at least.
Japan is a world leader in IVF in many ways, but now does have higher birth rates than places like SK which are laggards in IVF.
Confident is not the right word - but I have learnt that government policy is very effective when applied consistently. The one factor still missing I think is raising wage rates to levels where it is possible to raise children without having to work at GS or a law firm - but here again there is sign of change.
As you say - current birth rates in Asia are pointing towards extinction - but I find such an outcome hard to believe - and when I look at Chinese policy, they are making a big shift to favour labour over capital, and reduce the cost of raising children. All circumstantial evidence, but all point to a trend change.
Finally, birth rates are a lagging indicator. When I look at data from Australia listed IVF providers, there is a step change higher in cycles - which is a leading indicator.
Lets see,
Russell
Just a thought that due to global lockdowns there could be a slowing of house formations as people that would have met each other didn't meet each other for 2 years (zoom dates aside). I wonder would this connection lag be material in delaying your thesis?
https://www.russell-clark.com/p/here-comes-the-baby-boom-part-1?s=w
What we see from Australian listed IVF providers was that there was no slowdown in the IVF cycles in Australia during covid - a trend borne out with danish data.
True, but they are the more established relationships, no? Its the lag on new relationships that could create a slight delay on house formations in younger generations. i.e. they never met at that pub or at Fresher's Week due to lockdowns.
Crisis? What crisis?
Valid point. Depends on your point of view. But I think politics is shifting to seeing declining populations as a negative
Read your piece before watching the video, and was looking for how you were tying it to markets.
There isn't enough accessible data to really dig into this but I note from what you presented that in 2014 Denmark had around 6.5% ART births with general media reporting it up around 10% in subsequent years - don't know where it is now. There definitely was a lot of shagging going on during lockdown so it would not surprise me if numbers were robust across many countries.
But certainly the legal loopholes and law changes has made Denmark a centre for ART worldwide. Yet I am not expecting the baby boom you describe. As some one in the biomedical field I could easily go way of track here, so I will leave it at you hold too much store in technology.
Keep well.
there are no guarantees or certainties in life...just probabilities...
Hmm - not sure about that. Data on multiple pregnancies for example show that IVF techniques have been improving over time, which should reduce premature and underweight births. Technology has a way of improving over time