Empires are seemingly built on technological change. Are the magnificent seven locking in an everlasting technological empire? Is the idea of modern government obslete?
Russell, the East India Company was an autonomous entity until it got into wars and faced rebellions that were too big for it to handle, then it was nationalised. Your piece has got me thinking: between 1405 - 1433 Zheng He of the Ming Court embarked on voyages across SE Asia and through to the Persian Gulf. Europe at the time was a relative backwater mired in internecine sectarian conflict. The discovery of the Americas by Columbus in 1492, permanently altered the trajectory of human history. European advantages in long-distance navigation & transport combined with military prowess led to the establishment of large Empires & colonialism, hence the success of the EIC. Could we say that the monopolistic success of US Big Tech, now being translated into the AI sphere, is the equivalent of Columbus era?
Unless the Chinese do catch up rapidly and succeed in exporting their own Big Tech, it sure looks like it to me!
Certainly all the profits from the digital age seem to flow to the US and nowhere else. But I also think Chinese tech will be extremely competitive if it is ever allowed back into the west....
That's correct. Chinese Tech is unlikely to be allowed back into the OECD for obvious reasons. Whether it makes great inroads in the Global South is another matter entirely. However the enormous rents that Big Tech facilitates and extracts, remitting back to the US, is a key driver of dollar strength that cannot be underestimated.
Another great piece! (Although I've had a bad time shorting Tech, also inspired by your takes!)
Btw, you may have the answer to this question I've been pondering on: what is the share of corporate profits from listed vs unlisted companies in the U.S. and how did it evolve over time? One hypothesis I have had for a long time is that big corporations have slowly eaten mom & pop shops (MAG7 in particular). Which could boost listed profits even in times of overall stagnation?
(Also U.S. deficits = about SP500 net profits, about 6-7% of GDP.)
I tried thinking in those terms - looking at advertising as percentage of GDP to.estimate potential revenue - but the numbers have blown through that. I think online sale has reduced rent but boosted advertising as a cost.... deficits also.help.of course!
Capitalism is designed to exploit - for.both I'll and good. It fails when the exploited reject the terms.... but currently it's government being exploited. Which os why I am short TLT
Whether he realizes it or not, a major source of Trump support comes from voters who want these companies reined in.
100% - but his judicial appointees did not get that memo
I might conclude that a substantial majority of the population would like to see them reined in, not just Trump supporters.
Russell, the East India Company was an autonomous entity until it got into wars and faced rebellions that were too big for it to handle, then it was nationalised. Your piece has got me thinking: between 1405 - 1433 Zheng He of the Ming Court embarked on voyages across SE Asia and through to the Persian Gulf. Europe at the time was a relative backwater mired in internecine sectarian conflict. The discovery of the Americas by Columbus in 1492, permanently altered the trajectory of human history. European advantages in long-distance navigation & transport combined with military prowess led to the establishment of large Empires & colonialism, hence the success of the EIC. Could we say that the monopolistic success of US Big Tech, now being translated into the AI sphere, is the equivalent of Columbus era?
Unless the Chinese do catch up rapidly and succeed in exporting their own Big Tech, it sure looks like it to me!
Certainly all the profits from the digital age seem to flow to the US and nowhere else. But I also think Chinese tech will be extremely competitive if it is ever allowed back into the west....
That's correct. Chinese Tech is unlikely to be allowed back into the OECD for obvious reasons. Whether it makes great inroads in the Global South is another matter entirely. However the enormous rents that Big Tech facilitates and extracts, remitting back to the US, is a key driver of dollar strength that cannot be underestimated.
Another great piece! (Although I've had a bad time shorting Tech, also inspired by your takes!)
Btw, you may have the answer to this question I've been pondering on: what is the share of corporate profits from listed vs unlisted companies in the U.S. and how did it evolve over time? One hypothesis I have had for a long time is that big corporations have slowly eaten mom & pop shops (MAG7 in particular). Which could boost listed profits even in times of overall stagnation?
(Also U.S. deficits = about SP500 net profits, about 6-7% of GDP.)
I tried thinking in those terms - looking at advertising as percentage of GDP to.estimate potential revenue - but the numbers have blown through that. I think online sale has reduced rent but boosted advertising as a cost.... deficits also.help.of course!
Rather Marxist - Capitalism will destroy itself! Or does Big Tech just become "the Government"
Capitalism is designed to exploit - for.both I'll and good. It fails when the exploited reject the terms.... but currently it's government being exploited. Which os why I am short TLT
https://www.nypl.org/events/exhibitions/galleries/introduction-picturing-worlds-first-bubble-economy
https://www.nypl.org/events/exhibitions/galleries/staging-folly/item/11061
https://www.nypl.org/events/exhibitions/galleries/staging-folly/item/11048
Great Mirror of Folly circa 1720 — Six Companies
https://www.nypl.org/events/exhibitions/galleries/staging-folly/item/11039