Too bearish.... reminds me of the short Tesla thesis that was popular for years before it ran over the shorts like a steam train. The other problem is we are at a huge information disadvantage, as only Elon Musk and his engineers can really know if the Starlink set up is indeed conducive to a space based data centres... and as they said it is possible in the prospectus, legally they are bound to that. At face value, it is very bearish for other data centre companies....
not sure if space data centres work as you need radiation protected chips and THAT makes space data centres not feasible, too much gamma/beta/alpha rays out there, so he should make sure his chips do not melt down when arriving in space, good luck! radiation protected chips costs are in 1000sUSD/chip vs 0.5-100USD for normal sensor, analog, microcontroller, CPUs or other ASICs...
How about shorting softbank through the bonds Russel? Don’t know what the bond borrow is at, but cds at 350 bps seems quite assymetric as based on the analysis here Masa will just lever up further if openai manages to list. Ie there does not seem to be a scenario where he pays down debt…
Benny and The Squirrel latest Live YT has lively discussion on SpaceX IPO
Too bearish.... reminds me of the short Tesla thesis that was popular for years before it ran over the shorts like a steam train. The other problem is we are at a huge information disadvantage, as only Elon Musk and his engineers can really know if the Starlink set up is indeed conducive to a space based data centres... and as they said it is possible in the prospectus, legally they are bound to that. At face value, it is very bearish for other data centre companies....
not sure if space data centres work as you need radiation protected chips and THAT makes space data centres not feasible, too much gamma/beta/alpha rays out there, so he should make sure his chips do not melt down when arriving in space, good luck! radiation protected chips costs are in 1000sUSD/chip vs 0.5-100USD for normal sensor, analog, microcontroller, CPUs or other ASICs...
That is what I had heard as well - but then he was surprisingly confident of its feasibility in the prospectus...
Retail here! A heads-up just dropped in my box from CommSec for this
All the pundits have views on the space bit (the dream)
Reckon Starlink is the category killer product
Thought this post was going to have an anti-trust section, guy is literally building Skynet, wen T1000 prototype?
Only China does anti-trust/law enforcement these days.. see FUTU US. The US seems to talk about anti-trust, but when push comes to shove, money talks.
Starlink and launch business are fantastic. The question is where the capital poured into AI will make a return...
How about shorting softbank through the bonds Russel? Don’t know what the bond borrow is at, but cds at 350 bps seems quite assymetric as based on the analysis here Masa will just lever up further if openai manages to list. Ie there does not seem to be a scenario where he pays down debt…
Its not a bad idea - but corporate bond world tends to get very complicated... I prefer the simplicity of equites.