A resilient portfolio in this environment should emphasize cash and short-term instruments for liquidity, gold for inflation and currency risk, and selective equities with pricing power.
what breaks EM is always a rating change from rating agencies, my guess at some point one of the BIG rating agencies will d/g the US, similar to what they have done to EM not from AA to BB+, but from AA to A- is already enough to bring traders such as Druck into play and short more TLT and brings yields directly to 7% within days/weeks...let's wait which rating agency (policy) moves first...
btw: Turkey is turkey and getting roasted in November, but spelling according to United Nations rules is Türkiye now just a hint from a Young Turk :-)
Not culture -politics. Even under Biden policies ro keep China at bay were strengthened. Also with Musk and Thiel funding the right - its hard to a political seachange coming.
A resilient portfolio in this environment should emphasize cash and short-term instruments for liquidity, gold for inflation and currency risk, and selective equities with pricing power.
https://paretoinvestor.substack.com/p/treasury-collapse-2026-portfolio-defense
what breaks EM is always a rating change from rating agencies, my guess at some point one of the BIG rating agencies will d/g the US, similar to what they have done to EM not from AA to BB+, but from AA to A- is already enough to bring traders such as Druck into play and short more TLT and brings yields directly to 7% within days/weeks...let's wait which rating agency (policy) moves first...
btw: Turkey is turkey and getting roasted in November, but spelling according to United Nations rules is Türkiye now just a hint from a Young Turk :-)
Please stop conflating what Bessent and Trump do with American culture. It's offensive.
Not culture -politics. Even under Biden policies ro keep China at bay were strengthened. Also with Musk and Thiel funding the right - its hard to a political seachange coming.
Total agree there.
The far more interesting thing for me is how the world reacts to it... with the big delta being whether its fractures or unites Europe...
Didn't the Turkey stock market do quite well? If bond and the currency are both going down, what are the alternatives?
Dollar terms was poor. Gold did well of course
All roads lead to gold.
markets stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. never forget