I love macro - but it doesn't work, or not in the way we are taught. I am pondering what does work - and why macro has failed. Changing tech and trade flows offer the answer
As someone who wakes up old every morning, my job is to fight off that perception, hard for oneself, harder in the public face, best done one by one relationship be it brief encounters or those more permanent. You’ve struck a true note.
Spot on. I translate this to US politics where the Dems need to embrace their tech bros as the Republicans have. Dems have mined them for dollars but not truly to shape their policies.
You miss to mention the industry in which US are the world undisputed leaders: financial engineering. Some form of mean reversion is needed for capitalism to survive: perhaps not between different countries equities, but between sectors and assets classes.
Are you sure this argument against macro analysis isn't a misunderstanding of market auction theory? High US equity prices are almost entirely driven by multiple expansion. So, any buy/sell strategy that goes against the majority of incoming orders is likely to lose (i.e., trying to fight the tape).
With Fart Coin, crypto bros, and meme stocks still all the rage, clearly there is no shortage of liquidity in the system and hence no selling pressure.
This dynamic is also highlighted in Mike Green's analysis of passive index investing and the way mega caps are manipulated (via options strategies creating feedback loops).
I think US equites accurately reflect changing nature of US business and political life - passive represents the most efficient way to capture that change. If, and its a big if, politics in the US changes, then markets will change with it - but I really think markets are reflecting the reality of the new world. I see no bubble.
Great article. As a US investor, however, I feel a reversion to the mean is coming. The current valuation of many US stocks is out of line with fundamentals. IDK what the trigger will be but it feels scary.
As someone who wakes up old every morning, my job is to fight off that perception, hard for oneself, harder in the public face, best done one by one relationship be it brief encounters or those more permanent. You’ve struck a true note.
Spot on. I translate this to US politics where the Dems need to embrace their tech bros as the Republicans have. Dems have mined them for dollars but not truly to shape their policies.
Yes. But I think they have other problems too
You miss to mention the industry in which US are the world undisputed leaders: financial engineering. Some form of mean reversion is needed for capitalism to survive: perhaps not between different countries equities, but between sectors and assets classes.
There are a number of things going on in markets. But this tries to just look at the big stuff
Incredible article and really changed my world view.
It seems like the next logical step would be for Europe and Japan to increase local data center investment.
Indeed - economic nationalism, or following the Chinese lead
Are you sure this argument against macro analysis isn't a misunderstanding of market auction theory? High US equity prices are almost entirely driven by multiple expansion. So, any buy/sell strategy that goes against the majority of incoming orders is likely to lose (i.e., trying to fight the tape).
With Fart Coin, crypto bros, and meme stocks still all the rage, clearly there is no shortage of liquidity in the system and hence no selling pressure.
This dynamic is also highlighted in Mike Green's analysis of passive index investing and the way mega caps are manipulated (via options strategies creating feedback loops).
Hopefully, I haven’t misunderstood your point.
Merry Christmas!!
I think US equites accurately reflect changing nature of US business and political life - passive represents the most efficient way to capture that change. If, and its a big if, politics in the US changes, then markets will change with it - but I really think markets are reflecting the reality of the new world. I see no bubble.
Felix Zulauf with Ted Oakley via YT today : “think investing is more an older guys business” 🤷🏽♂️
Great article. As a US investor, however, I feel a reversion to the mean is coming. The current valuation of many US stocks is out of line with fundamentals. IDK what the trigger will be but it feels scary.
Its been a long time coming....
Macro = atlantic ocean with 100m height of waves
Investors = the sailing ship
Only the macro huge sailing ship may survive in the wavy Atlantic ocean especially during the storm.
Poor retailer = sure die in the Atlantic ocean.
There is haiku in there somewhere
SMF is the best investment I have ever made