Analysing Japan from a political perspective makes a compelling economic narrative, and helps explains current Yen weakness, but also perhaps signalling a seismic political realignment is beginning?
Once again, let me say that I enjoy this type of macro discussion and the push and pull between labor and capital. Its been a long trip since the 80s and the deindustrialization to the present time. People forget that things can happen slowly in one direction and after many decades start moving in the opposite direction. Your charts and discussion bare that forth and remind us that often who is being politically favored allows for a tipping of the scales in one way or another through their policies. I for one though, welcome the tip back to labor and a resumption of bringing back wealth inequality into a more favorable trend. What a time to be alive and 40 yrs old for me personally to be able to see how this trend plays out over the next 40 yrs.
No offense Russell but; there is no pivot. This place has been America's unsinkable aircraft carrier in the pacific since 1951. CIA and DEA playground since, and a Fed backstop. Add into that mix, demographics from having come from Korea and China in the first place (shock horror, indigenous Japanese are more Pacific islander than "East Asian" as we are today) and you get a very convoluted mix.
Japan has been a close ally of the US since the end of world war 2 - but has been in stagnation since 1990. I think some sort of change is inevitable - this is just one guess.
I must admit, I have observed in frustration over a number of years watching you struggle being so Right about many things, yet not being "Rightly" positioned.
Those are 2 entirely different matters.
You have so much on the Ball, Great Critical Thinking, and excellent Capital Connections.
I on the other hand have been stymied because of the old saw "Telling the Truth is a Revolutionary Act in Times of Universal Deception".
But then, I rather have less Capital with Courage and Honor, than be a Super Rich Coward.
As I have said, reach out to Me if you want get "Rightly" Positioned, and reach to the Fullness of Your Potential, which in My Estimation, is still far from where you are.
1. What percentage of 'Japanese' cars sold in the US are manufactured by non-unionised workforce in the US? How much Japanese exports are really going to suffer from pro-labour policies in the US?
2. Japan getting close to China will require a grovelling, humiliating, full apology by the Japanese for their actions in China in the 1930s and 1940s, which, hitherto, Japan managed to avoid. There is a lot of bad blood between these neighbours.
3. It makes sense for Japan, and all countries, really, to diversify away from US reserves into gold in a world where the USD has increasingly become a coercive policy tool for the US government. Diversification is always prudent.
2 - All I'm saying is that the deal would have to be humiliating to Japan (as was the defeat in WWII) to satisfy the Chinese, and Japan would really have to be pushed pretty hard by increasing US isolationist policies. Such a policy mistake by the US is, alas, not out of the question, but not the high probability outcome - yet.
3 - Diversify because
a. the US has become less responsible in the manner it uses its power, and may become harder to rely on as it focuses more on its internal affairs
b. what would be the easiest way to diversify away from fiat currencies that are in a race to the bottom?
This leads to a discussion of gold, and I hope you dedicate a session or two (or three) to it -
I heard your comments about gold bugs, and how they forget the decline in the value of this 'magical' substance from 1980 to 2001. I don't. I lived through the times. I remember the 1980 top, and in retrospect the causes for decline that I can identify were the high real rates and the political reversal in the fortunes of the US - from the nadir of 1979, through the '80s and the emergence of the US as the sole super power by the end of that decade. The combination of a super power with strong currency (the Plaza accords) and a booming economy was a good enough reason to shift away from gold.
But we are not in Kansas anymore - the US, for now, is again ailing politically and real rates are very low. It makes gold more attractive than it has been for a long time. Lastly, diversifying into gold may be the perfect tool to get the US to reconsider policies that may adversely impact Japan. A more subtle way to indicate to the US that Japan has some interests, too - without going as far as to fall into the arms of China
Once again, let me say that I enjoy this type of macro discussion and the push and pull between labor and capital. Its been a long trip since the 80s and the deindustrialization to the present time. People forget that things can happen slowly in one direction and after many decades start moving in the opposite direction. Your charts and discussion bare that forth and remind us that often who is being politically favored allows for a tipping of the scales in one way or another through their policies. I for one though, welcome the tip back to labor and a resumption of bringing back wealth inequality into a more favorable trend. What a time to be alive and 40 yrs old for me personally to be able to see how this trend plays out over the next 40 yrs.
No offense Russell but; there is no pivot. This place has been America's unsinkable aircraft carrier in the pacific since 1951. CIA and DEA playground since, and a Fed backstop. Add into that mix, demographics from having come from Korea and China in the first place (shock horror, indigenous Japanese are more Pacific islander than "East Asian" as we are today) and you get a very convoluted mix.
Japan has been a close ally of the US since the end of world war 2 - but has been in stagnation since 1990. I think some sort of change is inevitable - this is just one guess.
Good Morning Russell.
First, there are only two things to understand about Japan and China:
Nanking and Unit 731.
After China takes Taiwan, Japan and Australia will be directly in the cross hairs.
The World is in the process of being turned upside down.
Many Governments are going to Fall, and it is more likely than not,, that the American Government will as well.
It is "Realpolitik", Not any Economics that will be determinative.
The Debt Bubble is Failing, as there is No Way Out of The Debt Bubble, Only Consequences.
As for "Gold" and other "Metals", there will be No Gold Standard.
This definitively explains "Why" in 388 words:
https://www.talentseekscapital.com/uploads/3/4/5/6/34567939/gold.pdf
This explains all you need to know about "China" in 201 Words.
https://www.talentseekscapital.com/uploads/3/4/5/6/34567939/china.pdf
I must admit, I have observed in frustration over a number of years watching you struggle being so Right about many things, yet not being "Rightly" positioned.
Those are 2 entirely different matters.
You have so much on the Ball, Great Critical Thinking, and excellent Capital Connections.
I on the other hand have been stymied because of the old saw "Telling the Truth is a Revolutionary Act in Times of Universal Deception".
But then, I rather have less Capital with Courage and Honor, than be a Super Rich Coward.
As I have said, reach out to Me if you want get "Rightly" Positioned, and reach to the Fullness of Your Potential, which in My Estimation, is still far from where you are.
If not, as always, I wish the very best.
Regards, Carlos.
Very thought provoking and is aligned with analysis by Lois Vincent Gave of Gavkal. Outline of this can be found at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3npIdLiloY4&ab_channel=FinancialRepressionAuthority
Japan thesis starts at 37:30
1. What percentage of 'Japanese' cars sold in the US are manufactured by non-unionised workforce in the US? How much Japanese exports are really going to suffer from pro-labour policies in the US?
2. Japan getting close to China will require a grovelling, humiliating, full apology by the Japanese for their actions in China in the 1930s and 1940s, which, hitherto, Japan managed to avoid. There is a lot of bad blood between these neighbours.
3. It makes sense for Japan, and all countries, really, to diversify away from US reserves into gold in a world where the USD has increasingly become a coercive policy tool for the US government. Diversification is always prudent.
1 - 100 percent. Japanese factories are largely in the south
2 - US dropped two nuclear bombs on Japan and yet somehow they are allies. If China offers a good enough deal I am sure they can make it work.
3 - Japan had built up vast treasury reserves for years. Why diverify now?
1 - doesn't that change your calculations?
2 - All I'm saying is that the deal would have to be humiliating to Japan (as was the defeat in WWII) to satisfy the Chinese, and Japan would really have to be pushed pretty hard by increasing US isolationist policies. Such a policy mistake by the US is, alas, not out of the question, but not the high probability outcome - yet.
3 - Diversify because
a. the US has become less responsible in the manner it uses its power, and may become harder to rely on as it focuses more on its internal affairs
b. what would be the easiest way to diversify away from fiat currencies that are in a race to the bottom?
This leads to a discussion of gold, and I hope you dedicate a session or two (or three) to it -
I heard your comments about gold bugs, and how they forget the decline in the value of this 'magical' substance from 1980 to 2001. I don't. I lived through the times. I remember the 1980 top, and in retrospect the causes for decline that I can identify were the high real rates and the political reversal in the fortunes of the US - from the nadir of 1979, through the '80s and the emergence of the US as the sole super power by the end of that decade. The combination of a super power with strong currency (the Plaza accords) and a booming economy was a good enough reason to shift away from gold.
But we are not in Kansas anymore - the US, for now, is again ailing politically and real rates are very low. It makes gold more attractive than it has been for a long time. Lastly, diversifying into gold may be the perfect tool to get the US to reconsider policies that may adversely impact Japan. A more subtle way to indicate to the US that Japan has some interests, too - without going as far as to fall into the arms of China
FYI - Japan exports to the US, as well as has factories in the US. The factories in the US are 100% non-unionised.