First comment here! Pricey entrance! But I don't converse with hedgies any other way.
This reader lives in an off grid mountain house in Homer, Alaska... yes I too have danced with the bear in my head for too long, yet in two weeks I head back to Philadelphia.
Russell, I first heard of you on zerohedge... to be the last bear standing... you stood out in a world of colorful characters/thinkers
I'm an Ironworker by trade, although I've started a substack detailing my new found adventure of attempting to trade futures ( which was previously a substack about living off grid )
anyway a few boots on the ground insights... I'm an ironworker by trade, and our trade is always super duper sensitive to recession - work literally crashes in every recession, from 74-76, 81, 91, 2002 ( small one) and caught it hard in late 2008 until 2010
Ironwork is booming right now - the street is totally caught flat footed on how the economy really is right now - still hurting for workers ( the opposite of recession)
Yet, especially for anyone who didn't own a house pre covid - this economy is so bizarre because even working full time it is struggle to keep your head above water... for working class people.... we were living paycheck to paycheck before covid - now purchasing power has lost 25% and it has just become retarded.... which is why it makes sense that so many consumer discretionary stocks are getting crushed... yes the consumer is broke, yet this is while the economy is strong! it's a very weird dynamic that we haven't seen in a long time. My father had it good, I ( gen x'er ) didn't have it bad either, but the generation coming into the adult world is UTTERLY overwhelmed by how unaffordable traditional life is. Young adults with steady government jobs literally can't afford houses in my town.
what's that mean? Youthful energy moves the world and the compulsion towards my economically populist politics is IMMENSE. The 1 percent will try to misdirect as long as it can, but the political will that protected it in the 80s, like you have pointed out, is deader than a doornail.
the AI wave is interesting because it consumers are corporate capex - and is unconcerned about broke consumers. Seems super duper favorable to an industry that doesn't suffer from inflationary pressures ( materials, labor ) the same way some old fashioned dow jones 30 companies would?
MNQ is my sole position. I got out of it for a little while and was in the gold trade as it flirted with 2080 that one day, but being long gold and not tech has a misanthropic feel to it ( i say that because I've been in that camp for years now)
felt good being long tech today, nice breakout above 14000 and the trend is our friend until it ends. must stop thinking. bottom left to upper right is what I want to see!
my name is vincent, and I've been zerohedge free for two days now
I would offer a slightly different angle. It's not like the US is unwilling to offer a deal, it seems to be unable to. To illustrate, take the "rule based world order" they talk about ad nauseam. Well, under this rule based order, where the rules have been established mostly by the US, they are losing to China! China has been playing by these rules. And rather than accept defeat or get better, or offer China a place at the table to shape those rules, the US is single handedly changing these rules in the hope of keeping ahead.
I won't pass any moral judgement, just draw the attention to the simple fact that the US chooses to do that, rather than compete within that fabled rules based system. I'd say the simplest explanation for that is that is so cause they can't.
Same applies to US allies. The US simply can't offer that deal anymore. What it now offers is a direct wealth transfer to the US. To the Europeans - buy our more expensive gas and tech cause we say so. To Australia - buy our expensive military gear, though you actually don't need it. And so on.
"Why is the US treating its allies so badly?"
Because it can. The real question is why the vassals so meekly accept this abuse.
First comment here! Pricey entrance! But I don't converse with hedgies any other way.
This reader lives in an off grid mountain house in Homer, Alaska... yes I too have danced with the bear in my head for too long, yet in two weeks I head back to Philadelphia.
Russell, I first heard of you on zerohedge... to be the last bear standing... you stood out in a world of colorful characters/thinkers
I'm an Ironworker by trade, although I've started a substack detailing my new found adventure of attempting to trade futures ( which was previously a substack about living off grid )
anyway a few boots on the ground insights... I'm an ironworker by trade, and our trade is always super duper sensitive to recession - work literally crashes in every recession, from 74-76, 81, 91, 2002 ( small one) and caught it hard in late 2008 until 2010
Ironwork is booming right now - the street is totally caught flat footed on how the economy really is right now - still hurting for workers ( the opposite of recession)
Yet, especially for anyone who didn't own a house pre covid - this economy is so bizarre because even working full time it is struggle to keep your head above water... for working class people.... we were living paycheck to paycheck before covid - now purchasing power has lost 25% and it has just become retarded.... which is why it makes sense that so many consumer discretionary stocks are getting crushed... yes the consumer is broke, yet this is while the economy is strong! it's a very weird dynamic that we haven't seen in a long time. My father had it good, I ( gen x'er ) didn't have it bad either, but the generation coming into the adult world is UTTERLY overwhelmed by how unaffordable traditional life is. Young adults with steady government jobs literally can't afford houses in my town.
what's that mean? Youthful energy moves the world and the compulsion towards my economically populist politics is IMMENSE. The 1 percent will try to misdirect as long as it can, but the political will that protected it in the 80s, like you have pointed out, is deader than a doornail.
the AI wave is interesting because it consumers are corporate capex - and is unconcerned about broke consumers. Seems super duper favorable to an industry that doesn't suffer from inflationary pressures ( materials, labor ) the same way some old fashioned dow jones 30 companies would?
MNQ is my sole position. I got out of it for a little while and was in the gold trade as it flirted with 2080 that one day, but being long gold and not tech has a misanthropic feel to it ( i say that because I've been in that camp for years now)
felt good being long tech today, nice breakout above 14000 and the trend is our friend until it ends. must stop thinking. bottom left to upper right is what I want to see!
my name is vincent, and I've been zerohedge free for two days now
https://open.substack.com/pub/fatherofzoomers/p/apeman?r=jejuu&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Russell
One question: how do you explain the remarkable resilience of US asset prices and strength of the dollar in the face of above?
Surely someone must be buying dollar denominated assets, or Americans are liquidating foreign denominated claims, for this to be happening.
Who? And when does it stop?
I would offer a slightly different angle. It's not like the US is unwilling to offer a deal, it seems to be unable to. To illustrate, take the "rule based world order" they talk about ad nauseam. Well, under this rule based order, where the rules have been established mostly by the US, they are losing to China! China has been playing by these rules. And rather than accept defeat or get better, or offer China a place at the table to shape those rules, the US is single handedly changing these rules in the hope of keeping ahead.
I won't pass any moral judgement, just draw the attention to the simple fact that the US chooses to do that, rather than compete within that fabled rules based system. I'd say the simplest explanation for that is that is so cause they can't.
Same applies to US allies. The US simply can't offer that deal anymore. What it now offers is a direct wealth transfer to the US. To the Europeans - buy our more expensive gas and tech cause we say so. To Australia - buy our expensive military gear, though you actually don't need it. And so on.