I have also personally been bearish (underweight) US assets for about 9 years now. But the ability of the US to attract capital flows remains unprecedented. I thought that the events of 2008-9 would permanently impair Wall St's status and ability to raise capital. To some degree that was correct, certainly households deleveraged however it just channelled funds from overseas into another tech bubble instead.
I'm not sure if there's any precedent for this in history even for reserve currency issuers: did Britain attract such massive capital inflows in the late Victorian period?
Britain ran some extreme policies to attract capital - like tariffs on Japanese exports to India, to maintain Indian reliance on UK textiles (and you could argue the US is doing something similar to China today). And again in a rhyme of history, it made the Japanese realise they needed their own empire, and the Chinese seem to be following the same route.
No need to feel for me - fund management and politics are careers that always end in failure - it’s the nature of the beast. Just means you need to open your mind to the new world, and see where the opportunities are.
I feel for you Russell
I have also personally been bearish (underweight) US assets for about 9 years now. But the ability of the US to attract capital flows remains unprecedented. I thought that the events of 2008-9 would permanently impair Wall St's status and ability to raise capital. To some degree that was correct, certainly households deleveraged however it just channelled funds from overseas into another tech bubble instead.
I'm not sure if there's any precedent for this in history even for reserve currency issuers: did Britain attract such massive capital inflows in the late Victorian period?
Britain ran some extreme policies to attract capital - like tariffs on Japanese exports to India, to maintain Indian reliance on UK textiles (and you could argue the US is doing something similar to China today). And again in a rhyme of history, it made the Japanese realise they needed their own empire, and the Chinese seem to be following the same route.
No need to feel for me - fund management and politics are careers that always end in failure - it’s the nature of the beast. Just means you need to open your mind to the new world, and see where the opportunities are.