Another excellent post, thanks Russell - agree with everything you say and still see downside to TLT, albeit after a bounce from these levels.
Want to caution though that with TLT (or any other passive ETF for that matter) the short interest and other positioning metrics ideally need to look through to that of the underlying assets, that …
Another excellent post, thanks Russell - agree with everything you say and still see downside to TLT, albeit after a bounce from these levels.
Want to caution though that with TLT (or any other passive ETF for that matter) the short interest and other positioning metrics ideally need to look through to that of the underlying assets, that either form the baskets or are used by dealers to hedge - for TLT that's 20+year maturity treasuries and US Ultra Long bond futures... hard to get data on the former but for the latter CFTC data is available and shows a massive amount of short interest by speculators (CTAs and other funds).
Q is this something you have looked at and monitor also Russell?
Definitely seems retail short and buying the dip, though seems speculators may have woken up and now taking the other side - interestingly Ackman just announced he'd covered his 30yr bond short...
Bloomberg has some data on bond positioning, but have found it hard to reconcile. Dealer positioning tends to be an amagalmation of lots of different things…
Technically I get Ackman covering TLT - but as mentioned elsewhere, reshorting a position is very difficult. I prefer to let it run if I can
Another excellent post, thanks Russell - agree with everything you say and still see downside to TLT, albeit after a bounce from these levels.
Want to caution though that with TLT (or any other passive ETF for that matter) the short interest and other positioning metrics ideally need to look through to that of the underlying assets, that either form the baskets or are used by dealers to hedge - for TLT that's 20+year maturity treasuries and US Ultra Long bond futures... hard to get data on the former but for the latter CFTC data is available and shows a massive amount of short interest by speculators (CTAs and other funds).
Q is this something you have looked at and monitor also Russell?
Definitely seems retail short and buying the dip, though seems speculators may have woken up and now taking the other side - interestingly Ackman just announced he'd covered his 30yr bond short...
Bloomberg has some data on bond positioning, but have found it hard to reconcile. Dealer positioning tends to be an amagalmation of lots of different things…
Technically I get Ackman covering TLT - but as mentioned elsewhere, reshorting a position is very difficult. I prefer to let it run if I can
Worth looking at the shares outstanding of TBF (inverse 20yr etf) as well.
I agree rates need to take a breather soon - they've gone up so fast the last couple months. The 10 year caught quite the bid right when it hit 5%...
Interestingly enough, it looks like TBF has had mostly consistent outflows since the beginning of 2022.
Market cap is tiny....