investing is king era is correct but we will see capital deployed to sophisticated "assets" not lagging/old/antiquated/dinosaur investments i.e. US big aircraft carriers like Gerald Ford, China/Russia/Ukraine already preparing to move to agile asstes like drones and humanoids and no need for stell anymore, its chips and software/algos and brain, so human capital will be key and competition already ongoing and education will be biggest soft factor for emerging markets with HUGE amount of talent and keeping them at home will be key for success and drives EM markets in the longer term, see Turkeay with own drone capabilities and state of the art tech...holding people in own country will increase income by time and will drive consumption as EM people want to particiapte in LVHM, Gucci, TSLA spending spree and might drive inflation higher
The investment is king framework really resonates with what we're seeing in markets. The shift from price competiton to government-directed investment explains why cyclicals are outperforming despite higher rates. Your point about the US basically adopting Chinese-style industrial policy is spot-on. The Tesla example is particulary telling since it proved that build it and they will come can work when governments subsidize. Even with the AI buildout concerns, it's hard to see a return to the old globalizaton model.
investing is king era is correct but we will see capital deployed to sophisticated "assets" not lagging/old/antiquated/dinosaur investments i.e. US big aircraft carriers like Gerald Ford, China/Russia/Ukraine already preparing to move to agile asstes like drones and humanoids and no need for stell anymore, its chips and software/algos and brain, so human capital will be key and competition already ongoing and education will be biggest soft factor for emerging markets with HUGE amount of talent and keeping them at home will be key for success and drives EM markets in the longer term, see Turkeay with own drone capabilities and state of the art tech...holding people in own country will increase income by time and will drive consumption as EM people want to particiapte in LVHM, Gucci, TSLA spending spree and might drive inflation higher
The investment is king framework really resonates with what we're seeing in markets. The shift from price competiton to government-directed investment explains why cyclicals are outperforming despite higher rates. Your point about the US basically adopting Chinese-style industrial policy is spot-on. The Tesla example is particulary telling since it proved that build it and they will come can work when governments subsidize. Even with the AI buildout concerns, it's hard to see a return to the old globalizaton model.