1. Baby Boomers own > 60% of US equities, and are aged 62-80, and thus likely to be dissaving
2. Foreigners own around 20% of US equities, and are increasingly likely to become lesser buyers post Davos, and quite possibly net sellers of US equities
3. Markets are outperforming the growth in salary contributions, which means that monthly savings inflows become a smaller % of market cap over time
4. AI causes job losses, which turns current contributors to savings products, into redeemers of savings products, and thus equities
5. Something changes with regards to the very high equity contributions in Target Date Funds - maybe financial repression, forcing these funds to buy more US Treasuries
The risks to passive that I would add are:
1. Baby Boomers own > 60% of US equities, and are aged 62-80, and thus likely to be dissaving
2. Foreigners own around 20% of US equities, and are increasingly likely to become lesser buyers post Davos, and quite possibly net sellers of US equities
3. Markets are outperforming the growth in salary contributions, which means that monthly savings inflows become a smaller % of market cap over time
4. AI causes job losses, which turns current contributors to savings products, into redeemers of savings products, and thus equities
5. Something changes with regards to the very high equity contributions in Target Date Funds - maybe financial repression, forcing these funds to buy more US Treasuries