24 Comments

Russel this is unusually flimsy thinking imo. To take an article in the economist as proof of anything is crazy. Look at the track record and editorial stance of the publication. It’s hardly a secret that the US security blob is seeking wedges to drive between China and Europe. As in the Iraq example it would appear you’re falling victim to what appears to me to be a forced narrative.

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I don't trust Economist opinion (ie leader section) - but I do trust the back pages. You can also verify the Chinese ship data independently easily.

Words and suspicion I ignore (I meet a lot of people in the UK that think the EU is a continuation of World War II - bonkers in my view) but when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 - you knew something had changed. Actions mean something more than words.... and as I pointed out, I could never find anything that China had ACTUALLY done - but this seems pretty close to me.

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Genuine question - why would the back pages of The Economist be trustable re: China?

Anyways, on this particular topic I suspect there is a lot more than meets the eye. Doesn't make sense for them to just blatantly cut cables. If the only apparent way to square the circle is that "well maybe China really is a cartoon villain doing irrational things"... well...

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from my perspective, on this side of the Atlantic, the struggle between the US and China has been ongoing for a decade or more, and has been increasing in intensity. whether in space (remember the satellite that exploded leaving debris in a key orbital path to destroy other satellites?), under water, in the technology space or general manufacturing, China has been doing its best to undermine the US.

I believe history is the correct place to look, where the Chinese, whose civilization has been around a lot longer than ours, believe that the natural order of things in the world is they are the pre-eminent power and everyone needs to kowtow to them. after all, the US has only been around 250 years, so is still wet behind the ears from that perspective.

The big difference now is that President Trump has not been persuaded that it is in the US best interest to simply outsource manufacturing capacity so that US corporations can increase their EPS by a few pennies a share. surprisingly, for a billionaire, he doesn't appear to have many friends at the top of the US corporate structure.

meanwhile, given the extreme incompetence demonstrated by the Biden administration across the board, notably in driving inflation significantly higher while gaslighting the American public, Trump has tapped into the national zeitgeist, which is, arguably, the US experiment is the most successful national concept ever developed and we need to get back to its basics.

The fact that Biden allowed a Chinese spy balloon to traverse the nation is more an indictment of the outgoing administration's incompetence than the idea that Chinese are suddenly changing tactics. This is the major global conflict for the next decades I believe.

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The Pentagon announced a while ago that the balloon did not collect or transmit intelligence while over the U.S. . Analysis revealed its sensors were never activated during its flight across the U.S.

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Still amazing it could fly over the US

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I agree with you that, like Amercians, most individuals love making money and is their number one motive. However the idea of the "individual" is counter to their Govts mission.

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Hi Russell, I am Glad you are changing your views. I can bet that once you start looking at their actions through a new lense, it will become obvious that every action and decsion they make is with and towards one goal

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You are on the right track to look to the historical grievances that Chinese leaders harbor in formulating their world view and policies. That is the PRIMARY prism of viewing their actions — Taiwan, trade, relationships with the Western world. They don’t have a world-dominating paradigm in their thinking. For them to take aggressive MILITARY actions, they would have to resolve the energy conundrum (they are not self-sufficient) , given their geographical position in the world.

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When the US was energy deficient, this led them to build out a military force.... I think China may be going along similar line of thinking...

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IMHO, I think CCP cares about being independent as a country (and stay in power). They are balancing between the country (the people) vs the party's interests (so they can run the country).

They will wait for Trump so you may want to wait until then and keep thinking. That's what I plan.

I don't know, I may be wrong.

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I agreed with most of that - which made me expect they would work hard to strengthen relationships with the rest of the world. This is why the activity in the Baltic Sea is so inexplicable

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Maybe there is something we don't know we don't know and it may be someone else.

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The world is getting crazy, and a cornered country has to fight for its living space. But even in that case, I would rather believe Russia did this by sending spies onto that Chinese ship. Because it makes no sense for CCP to do this when they badly need European markets with a potential re-engaging opportunity given Trump's attitude on allies.

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Agreed - but even allowing Russian spies to get China to do this is bad. What else can Russia do with Chinese assets?

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To me Xi's actions all seemed so fickle. About a year ago there was a major propaganda against Japan releasing nuclear waste, but he turned around a few months later and tried to make peace with Japan. In China we say he's a bus driver that turns too fast making all the passengers sick.

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It is a bit confusing to be honest... talk about stimulus then under perform. It is not exactly clear what he is trying to achieve

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China’s action looks confusing because the vast bureaucracy under Xi confused. Xi may or may not actually think deflation is not bad, but what are the chances he is being warned about a possible deflationary spiral by his underlying, who are more likely to shut up than sticking out their necks.

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Does the sabotage of NS2 pipeline figure in your thinking on this topic?

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NS2 I suspect were the Americans.... who were never keen on Europe buying gas from the USSR - but in a hydrocarbon scarce world went along with it. Now, with the US having excess natural gas, they saw a good opportunity to make sure there was no changing policy in the future.

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"NS2 I suspect were the Americans"

American here and I agree it was our gov't 100%. Specifically the CIA.

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Is fentanyl revenge for opium ?

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There is a certain irony

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