I know that I and many other “macro” managers have commented that the world no longer trades the way it used to trade. I have spent the last few years trying to find ways to put it together - but to be honest, the models I have needed have always ended up being too complicated to use effectively. I have looked at the idea that there are hidden levels of GDP, as well as the rise of shale oil and gas and EVs have effectively broken the links between the US and the rest of the world. While there is some truth to these, they are not really simple models, and they have no benefit for investing, and no strong “non-consensus views”. But thinking about all these things again, I think I have a model that resolves these issues. It took the market reaction to DeepSeek to resolve things in my mind. Things seem relatively simple to me again. First lets look at the “macro problems”, secondly, how DeepSeek helps resolve them, and then thirdly, how that leads to an aggressive investment strategy that I like the look of.

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