How do you think the crashing disposable income of the lowest quintile income brackets will impact commodity markets and presumably therefore govt bond yields in next 12 months thanks
Commodities seem to be driven more by China at the moment.. and they seem to have moved to a very pro consumer policy. So historically you have wanted to be cautious on commodities when US consumers are suffering - but now we might see US consumer weakness having no effect on commodity prices... and as I argued in my previous note - bond yields could be seen as the willingness of a country to devalue... with rising food prices, perhaps central banks will act to keep currencies strong, implying higher yields...
Thank you for this insight.
Is there any way to get this data ourselves in a timely matter, and/or is there a good proxy?
Vix is easy.to get and is widely reported. Likewise bond ETFs like HYG and LQD. UX8 or UX6 I get from Bloomberg, but you.can get it here : https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_futures/
Regards,
Russell
Sorry, I should have specified I meant the Korean autocallables.
Not really. I will do a post just on autocallables in the near future
How do you think the crashing disposable income of the lowest quintile income brackets will impact commodity markets and presumably therefore govt bond yields in next 12 months thanks
Commodities seem to be driven more by China at the moment.. and they seem to have moved to a very pro consumer policy. So historically you have wanted to be cautious on commodities when US consumers are suffering - but now we might see US consumer weakness having no effect on commodity prices... and as I argued in my previous note - bond yields could be seen as the willingness of a country to devalue... with rising food prices, perhaps central banks will act to keep currencies strong, implying higher yields...