Russell, i have seen you talking about a general structural regime change already in summer 21 (don't remember exactly when, but i think it was on RV). I also heard Russell Napier talking about a structural political change, but not only in China, (if i understood him correctly) but also in the west, specifically in the US. Now if we assume that this is correct, the interesting question would be what impact such policy has on asset prices. What is your take on this? And maybe it's worth a video, if you are interested :)
Additionally, do you think that the balance sheet run-off will have a negative impact on equity prices, regardless of the way the balance sheet is reduced? In example, doesn't it make a difference, if the US treasury finances the run-off mostly with the issuance of short term bills, or long term treasuries?
Hi Russell, a question. I know the commodity futures and options clearinghouse provide credit intermediation in the commodities markets and have risk pricing power in the form of mandatory collateral requirements, but what is the equivalent in the equities markets? Is it the big prime brokers?
Russell, I have followed Martin Armstrong for quite a few years now. His longer-term trend predictions are really very impressive. His thesis for many years has been that U.S. equities will remain bullish due to the European economy being such a disaster, and capital fleeing Europe for the U.S. due to its significantly better economic fundamentals. Furthermore, he notes how capital flees geographical locations at threat of war -- which only adds to the incentive for capital to flee Europe for the U.S. It also seems that Europe will suffer far greater commodity supply issues than the U.S. in coming years, so it will be interesting to see if this results in an even stronger flow of capital from Europe to the U.S. Have you done any analysis of global capital flows Russell? Armstrong's thesis seems valid, but I would be curious as to whether the hard data backs it up.
Old at 38? (Christ). Seems like a possible pump in April is coming followed by a "sell in May and stay away" when the Fed tries / begins to tighten liquidity.
Russell, i have seen you talking about a general structural regime change already in summer 21 (don't remember exactly when, but i think it was on RV). I also heard Russell Napier talking about a structural political change, but not only in China, (if i understood him correctly) but also in the west, specifically in the US. Now if we assume that this is correct, the interesting question would be what impact such policy has on asset prices. What is your take on this? And maybe it's worth a video, if you are interested :)
Additionally, do you think that the balance sheet run-off will have a negative impact on equity prices, regardless of the way the balance sheet is reduced? In example, doesn't it make a difference, if the US treasury finances the run-off mostly with the issuance of short term bills, or long term treasuries?
Hi Russell, a question. I know the commodity futures and options clearinghouse provide credit intermediation in the commodities markets and have risk pricing power in the form of mandatory collateral requirements, but what is the equivalent in the equities markets? Is it the big prime brokers?
Russell, I have followed Martin Armstrong for quite a few years now. His longer-term trend predictions are really very impressive. His thesis for many years has been that U.S. equities will remain bullish due to the European economy being such a disaster, and capital fleeing Europe for the U.S. due to its significantly better economic fundamentals. Furthermore, he notes how capital flees geographical locations at threat of war -- which only adds to the incentive for capital to flee Europe for the U.S. It also seems that Europe will suffer far greater commodity supply issues than the U.S. in coming years, so it will be interesting to see if this results in an even stronger flow of capital from Europe to the U.S. Have you done any analysis of global capital flows Russell? Armstrong's thesis seems valid, but I would be curious as to whether the hard data backs it up.
Thanks for the insight Russell.
Yes, it's all about politics, and a day can be a long time in politics, as they say.
As NATO members might see it, a market correction would also be a sign of weakness?
Will domestic politics align with international/NATO concerns for the US? If not, a very interesting choice remains ahead.
Old at 38? (Christ). Seems like a possible pump in April is coming followed by a "sell in May and stay away" when the Fed tries / begins to tighten liquidity.