Hi Russell. Thank you for sharing your mind with us this past year. It's a pleasure watching you put the pieces of the "macro puzzle" together. Tremendous value for money. You have inspired me down a rabbit hole of my own. Thought you'd be interested in this:
Very interesting - thank you. I keep thinking at some point politicians will latch on to a "baby crisis" as a vote winner, and then policies will change very quickly, as it has with the "climate crisis".
Interesting that Holland is having a lot of babies - or my Dutch friends complain about property prices constantly.... but I guess Israel also has expensive property prices, and good fertility rates
I think in Russell on Russell post I address this issue... in a world that is moving pro-labour, governments actually want a strong currency to boost real wages. Europe, US, China have moved pro-labour, but Japan remains relentless pro-capital, and seems very happy to keep giving japanese workers wages cuts.
So to buy yen (which is very cheap) you need political change from either within or without - that is voters reject abenomics and kuroda, or foreign governments retaliated against Japanese beggar thy neighbour currency policies with tariffs. Sooo... the signpost for political change are there... but I dont think it moves until the politicians commit to it.
Hi Russell. Thank you for sharing your mind with us this past year. It's a pleasure watching you put the pieces of the "macro puzzle" together. Tremendous value for money. You have inspired me down a rabbit hole of my own. Thought you'd be interested in this:
https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/24/Policy_Briefs/PB_Netherlands.pdf
Anecdotally, your theory explains the situation on the ground here in Holland. All my friends are having babies! Babies everywhere!
Here's to wishing you a very "fertile" New Year. Cheers!
Very interesting - thank you. I keep thinking at some point politicians will latch on to a "baby crisis" as a vote winner, and then policies will change very quickly, as it has with the "climate crisis".
Interesting that Holland is having a lot of babies - or my Dutch friends complain about property prices constantly.... but I guess Israel also has expensive property prices, and good fertility rates
Hi Russell. You had previously suggested buy yen/short dollar. What do you think needs to happen to set that trade afoot?
I think in Russell on Russell post I address this issue... in a world that is moving pro-labour, governments actually want a strong currency to boost real wages. Europe, US, China have moved pro-labour, but Japan remains relentless pro-capital, and seems very happy to keep giving japanese workers wages cuts.
So to buy yen (which is very cheap) you need political change from either within or without - that is voters reject abenomics and kuroda, or foreign governments retaliated against Japanese beggar thy neighbour currency policies with tariffs. Sooo... the signpost for political change are there... but I dont think it moves until the politicians commit to it.
What about Japanese equities
Could a final escape from deflation be the catalyst for multiple rerating?
100 percent. If they can get wages.to rise the boom should be immense...