Russell - the short interest in GBTC is a function of the arb. As a close end fund it trades at a discount so no one shorts it any more for the arb. The reason futures are seeing longs is also because of the arb as they trade cheap.
"BP, Shell & Exxon are all abandoning their multi-decade Russian investments knowing they won't get 1 cent back. Russia can't access USD EUR CAN JPY or CHF. All that's left is crypto. Expect every major government to come for it next. As w real assets in Russia, it'll go to zero."
What probability do you assign to that event? Long physical BTC & puts against MSTR might be a good strategy as a hedge?
I reckon GBTC is definitely a smaller factor than before and there are some interesting gaps on the CME futures at lower levels.
Agree on stored energy and cost of energy has an impact.
I did take a position in digital assets but hedged it with SQQQ x3 leverage and oddly (up to now) I’m up in both trades. There has been a historic correlation with QQQx3 but that (if only short term) seems to have decoupled.
Option Open Prep Interest from Glassnode is a useful indicator when it’s frothy and when short sellers start fishing for stop losses. It’s back at mid Feb levels from yesterday.
My gut is market shock from FOMC mid March and then let’s see how it performs then.
GBTC Shares Outstanding unchanged at 692,370,100 since Feb 2021. See https://grayscale.com/products/grayscale-bitcoin-trust/ and https://www.coinglass.com/Grayscale#Holdings (slow decay is from coin entitlement per share decreasing to generate 2% pa fee)
Russell - the short interest in GBTC is a function of the arb. As a close end fund it trades at a discount so no one shorts it any more for the arb. The reason futures are seeing longs is also because of the arb as they trade cheap.
Tweet by Zeihan:
"BP, Shell & Exxon are all abandoning their multi-decade Russian investments knowing they won't get 1 cent back. Russia can't access USD EUR CAN JPY or CHF. All that's left is crypto. Expect every major government to come for it next. As w real assets in Russia, it'll go to zero."
What probability do you assign to that event? Long physical BTC & puts against MSTR might be a good strategy as a hedge?
I reckon GBTC is definitely a smaller factor than before and there are some interesting gaps on the CME futures at lower levels.
Agree on stored energy and cost of energy has an impact.
I did take a position in digital assets but hedged it with SQQQ x3 leverage and oddly (up to now) I’m up in both trades. There has been a historic correlation with QQQx3 but that (if only short term) seems to have decoupled.
Option Open Prep Interest from Glassnode is a useful indicator when it’s frothy and when short sellers start fishing for stop losses. It’s back at mid Feb levels from yesterday.
My gut is market shock from FOMC mid March and then let’s see how it performs then.