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May 18, 2022Liked by Russell Clark

It is an interesting and original observation that birth rates are more likely to stabilise than to drop significantly further - certainly in countries where the shift to a smaller number of children at a later age has occurred, but:

a. this is still a process that is far from complete - maybe in Sweden it is, but it will require more detailed work on other countries to see how close we are to that point.

b. Timeline - the economic impact of such stabilisation is not likely to occur next week, or month, or year - or decade. For the foreseeable future it still seems we are heading towards a declining and ageing population.

Bottom line - while this is a useful cautionary note to anyone who thinks the population will decline inexorably 'forever', it requires a lot more work to suggest when, exactly, this stabilisation is likely to occur.

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