Watch now (9 min) | Better education and gender equality may only lead to older mothers, not less children, a one-time shift that may be ending. Pro labour policies could ignite a baby boom.
It is an interesting and original observation that birth rates are more likely to stabilise than to drop significantly further - certainly in countries where the shift to a smaller number of children at a later age has occurred, but:
a. this is still a process that is far from complete - maybe in Sweden it is, but it will require more detailed work on other countries to see how close we are to that point.
b. Timeline - the economic impact of such stabilisation is not likely to occur next week, or month, or year - or decade. For the foreseeable future it still seems we are heading towards a declining and ageing population.
Bottom line - while this is a useful cautionary note to anyone who thinks the population will decline inexorably 'forever', it requires a lot more work to suggest when, exactly, this stabilisation is likely to occur.
It is an interesting and original observation that birth rates are more likely to stabilise than to drop significantly further - certainly in countries where the shift to a smaller number of children at a later age has occurred, but:
a. this is still a process that is far from complete - maybe in Sweden it is, but it will require more detailed work on other countries to see how close we are to that point.
b. Timeline - the economic impact of such stabilisation is not likely to occur next week, or month, or year - or decade. For the foreseeable future it still seems we are heading towards a declining and ageing population.
Bottom line - while this is a useful cautionary note to anyone who thinks the population will decline inexorably 'forever', it requires a lot more work to suggest when, exactly, this stabilisation is likely to occur.