Better education and gender equality may only lead to older mothers, not less children, a one-time shift that may be ending. Pro labour policies could ignite a baby boom.
It is an interesting and original observation that birth rates are more likely to stabilise than to drop significantly further - certainly in countries where the shift to a smaller number of children at a later age has occurred, but:
a. this is still a process that is far from complete - maybe in Sweden it is, but it will require more detailed work on other countries to see how close we are to that point.
b. Timeline - the economic impact of such stabilisation is not likely to occur next week, or month, or year - or decade. For the foreseeable future it still seems we are heading towards a declining and ageing population.
Bottom line - while this is a useful cautionary note to anyone who thinks the population will decline inexorably 'forever', it requires a lot more work to suggest when, exactly, this stabilisation is likely to occur.
ARE WE ON THE PRECIPICE OF A BABY BOOM?
It is an interesting and original observation that birth rates are more likely to stabilise than to drop significantly further - certainly in countries where the shift to a smaller number of children at a later age has occurred, but:
a. this is still a process that is far from complete - maybe in Sweden it is, but it will require more detailed work on other countries to see how close we are to that point.
b. Timeline - the economic impact of such stabilisation is not likely to occur next week, or month, or year - or decade. For the foreseeable future it still seems we are heading towards a declining and ageing population.
Bottom line - while this is a useful cautionary note to anyone who thinks the population will decline inexorably 'forever', it requires a lot more work to suggest when, exactly, this stabilisation is likely to occur.