Thanks Russell. Thanks v much for the mention. I agree with your carry/tax point. Away from that, I actually suspect that some of the PE shenanigans (antitrust) in roll ups (esp healthcare) exposes Big PE to bipartisan headaches. I had a good look at Ares and (mistakenly!) thought they were an ideal recession short coming into 2023. This…
Thanks Russell. Thanks v much for the mention. I agree with your carry/tax point. Away from that, I actually suspect that some of the PE shenanigans (antitrust) in roll ups (esp healthcare) exposes Big PE to bipartisan headaches. I had a good look at Ares and (mistakenly!) thought they were an ideal recession short coming into 2023. This was an expensive point of view... I actually think that they possibly have an incumbency advantage in the private credit space (BX and the rest are basically arrivistes here - performance of the 22/23 private credit vintage will I suspect, be HIGHLY variable). Ted Seides did a great podcast with the Ares CIO which I will dig out and post here when I find.
Thanks Russell. Thanks v much for the mention. I agree with your carry/tax point. Away from that, I actually suspect that some of the PE shenanigans (antitrust) in roll ups (esp healthcare) exposes Big PE to bipartisan headaches. I had a good look at Ares and (mistakenly!) thought they were an ideal recession short coming into 2023. This was an expensive point of view... I actually think that they possibly have an incumbency advantage in the private credit space (BX and the rest are basically arrivistes here - performance of the 22/23 private credit vintage will I suspect, be HIGHLY variable). Ted Seides did a great podcast with the Ares CIO which I will dig out and post here when I find.