25 Comments
User's avatar
lordprime2's avatar

Chipotle is a "cult" with die-hard millennials and gen z'ers. They perceive it to be healthy. Starbucks lost its cool about 20 years ago

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

Cult is a good business model - see Hermes handbags, Ferraris, Marvel characters...

Expand full comment
A Walking Gentleman's avatar

I wonder is there a correlation to Starbucks revenues and work from home. Would have to look at the % of units close to Office Space.

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

Should be seeing it in other restaurant chains if there is though...

Expand full comment
A Walking Gentleman's avatar

From my own personal behaviour I have stopped spending in Starbucks but I still get lunches 🤷‍♂️

Expand full comment
Tcsyikz's avatar

Coffee is a want. Food is a need. It's that simple in terms of demand elasticity to personal disposable income imo. Further, Dutch Bros is publicly listed and a far better comp than Tim Hortons.... The sector itself is fairly complex w/ constantly shifting customer preferences so I dislike even drawing generalizations there.... OK

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

True... although I keep thinking competition has been increasing for sometime - and this is the first sign of it starting to effect profitability of the business. With the rise of Red Bull and Monster, I always wondered why people never talk about "Big Caffeine"

Expand full comment
hnk's avatar

Great theory about Howard Schultz

Expand full comment
David Adams's avatar

I’m in the UK and eating out is now expensive and no value for money, which you mentioned before. So we have reduced our eating out and happier to do more entertaining at home. No sure where the industry is going until pricing comes back a bit.

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

It is expensive - and yet restaurants are full...

Expand full comment
David Adams's avatar

I’m in Fleet in Hampshire and we don’t get recessions and as you say the restaurants are all full.

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

I was out in London last night, and they were still seating people at 11.30....

Expand full comment
David Adams's avatar

Didn’t someone once say price is what you pay and value is what you get!

Expand full comment
David Adams's avatar

I’m in the UK and the Starbucks stores are very tired and the staff seem embarrassed by the state of them. The problem we have here is the cost of getting work done is very expensive whether it be plumbing, building or electrical and with full employment that isn’t going to change soon.

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

In London at least, there seems to be a lot of competition these days.

Expand full comment
Ad Astra's avatar

Starbucks is getting boycotted by a faction of the American society due to their initial stance on Israel and Palestine.

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

Fair point... why was market so suprised at earning though?

Expand full comment
Peter Andersland's avatar

nice work you do on this blog of yours! perhaps the coffee bars are most at risk from the work from home i.e. buying a coffee three times a week instead of five. a lunch Chipotle may still be taken the days when in office?

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

Word on the street is that it's possible to eat for under USD10 at Chipotle and Domino's so they are taking market share. Trying to confirm-if so then bad for all players

Expand full comment
Jeffery's avatar

In my experience (california) dominos and chipotle would be over $10. mcdonalds $5 (using app). in n out under $10. starbucks biggest size black coffee almost $4. raising canes $14. local taco places $3+/taco. local burrito $11. regular gas 4.99/gal. beer at bar for night out $7

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

sounds about right... although I hear about upscale restaurants being very expensive indeed

Expand full comment
Jeffery's avatar

dominos $15 and chip $15

Expand full comment
lordprime2's avatar

Domino's has an $8 single topping pizza the most are a little higher. Chipotle is $10 to $20 here depending on chips and a drink. You can go to the website and start an online order for both to get pricing.

Expand full comment
Russell Clark's avatar

I just saw McDonalds advertising a breakfast McMuffin and Coffee for £2.50. Most coffeeshops charge £3.50 for a coffee. I think we are getting to price wars stage in fast food world

Expand full comment
lordprime2's avatar

Yesterday I put on a small long Chipotle, short Starbucks pair into the Chipotle 50-1 June stock split. Will cover prior to the split date

Expand full comment