Thanks for the thoughts Russell. I think one thing missed is that the S&P Index Committee also announced that they will not shorten the seasoning time of 12 months and US GAAP profits for inclusion into the S&P indices.
That took out a big part of the passive bid buying the AI-3. If the AI-3 can't raise as much cash then the AI Neg. Cash Flow eating machine stops running. That risk increased on Friday.
The AI-3 IPOs will still go forward, but Wall St. lost what it believed to be an easy bag holder....
certainly there is no reason to believe that any central bank is the return of Paul Volcker. once the Bundesbank got folded into the ECB, there were no more hawkish central banks left
My hope is that we have a period of extended lower lows / highs in the sh#tcos around AI ie de-spacd neoclouds, nuclear energy as a service (ie oklo), for some months as a clear warning before the big guys top out. Seems to be the way these big tops play out previously. Think i have stolen this from Jeremy Grantham but recall same happened in 22 and i think 2000…
I think you need to see some sign of change in the AI trade for markets to fall... which would mean some sign that someone thinks it won't be as big as expected...
"If I saw evidence that AI adoption was slowing, then I think we could read a top."
There have been reports of some big spenders cutting back on their AI budgets, but I guess so far not enough to compensate the general growth?
https://x.com/nxthompson/status/2063712713654628549
Chinese models are used quite extensively too and are much much cheaper.
Lots of rumours.... but nothing confirmed. In dotcom you had Internet companies going bust before Cisco crashed
Thanks for the thoughts Russell. I think one thing missed is that the S&P Index Committee also announced that they will not shorten the seasoning time of 12 months and US GAAP profits for inclusion into the S&P indices.
That took out a big part of the passive bid buying the AI-3. If the AI-3 can't raise as much cash then the AI Neg. Cash Flow eating machine stops running. That risk increased on Friday.
The AI-3 IPOs will still go forward, but Wall St. lost what it believed to be an easy bag holder....
If the IPOs go poorly, then we will have a clear sign the cash is running out... but no sign of that yet....
certainly there is no reason to believe that any central bank is the return of Paul Volcker. once the Bundesbank got folded into the ECB, there were no more hawkish central banks left
My hope is that we have a period of extended lower lows / highs in the sh#tcos around AI ie de-spacd neoclouds, nuclear energy as a service (ie oklo), for some months as a clear warning before the big guys top out. Seems to be the way these big tops play out previously. Think i have stolen this from Jeremy Grantham but recall same happened in 22 and i think 2000…
I think you need to see some sign of change in the AI trade for markets to fall... which would mean some sign that someone thinks it won't be as big as expected...