"But war tends to be inflationary", what is interesting is that even though commodity prices are going up and in backwardation (e.g., oil), the underlying equities are trading lower (which I can't really wrap my head around yet what this signals). Rather than war being inflationary, might this war deflationary instead for commodities if it creates more geopolitical stability?
War is inflationary, but also increase uncertainty - which is bad for stocks? Perhaps the best way to think about it is stocks tend to react to long term outlook - while commodities HAVE to respond to immediate supply and demand.
Korea equities appear heavily impacted by leveraged ETF's (e.g. KORU) forced selling on close yesterday - should have opposite effect today if futures prices stick
Looks like a simple de-leveraging event. Those indices went parabolic alongside other names that did the same thing in recent months (gold, silver, platinum, and also copper to some extent).
Also, the oil futures curve is pricing crude back to sub 70 by autumn. Seems wildly optimistic to me, but who am I to argue?
"But war tends to be inflationary", what is interesting is that even though commodity prices are going up and in backwardation (e.g., oil), the underlying equities are trading lower (which I can't really wrap my head around yet what this signals). Rather than war being inflationary, might this war deflationary instead for commodities if it creates more geopolitical stability?
War is inflationary, but also increase uncertainty - which is bad for stocks? Perhaps the best way to think about it is stocks tend to react to long term outlook - while commodities HAVE to respond to immediate supply and demand.
I think you are right, everything is corrective. There has been no trend change anywhere yet
Korea equities appear heavily impacted by leveraged ETF's (e.g. KORU) forced selling on close yesterday - should have opposite effect today if futures prices stick
Looks like a simple de-leveraging event. Those indices went parabolic alongside other names that did the same thing in recent months (gold, silver, platinum, and also copper to some extent).
Also, the oil futures curve is pricing crude back to sub 70 by autumn. Seems wildly optimistic to me, but who am I to argue?
Its weird to see China holding up while Korea and Japan get pummelled...