In thinking about portfolio construction, I want to stay close to my core theme of pro-labour politics. The core investment idea is that real assets rise with wages, while financial assets are suppressed to try and keep inflation under control and allow real wages to rise. The key trade has been long GLD (gold) and short TLT (long dated treasuries). It has been good so far.
One of the questions I have been asking myself is whether cryptocurrencies and bitcoin in particular is a financial asset or a real asset (a digital gold). It is a really tough question. Bitcoin got crushed in 2022 when rates started to rise, but has doubled this year.
In a previous post, I stated that I thought stablecoin market cap and bitcoin could be correlated.