Their Form C (required by Reg CF) appeared on EDGAR a week or so ago, the numbers included are for 2020 and 2021. The 2022 numbers should appear soon, IIRC they have 120 days from FY close to make them available.
Agreed- but that is why they are pushing internally generated subscribers- saying Substack is the nest way to grow that. Substack network has been my biggest source last two months anyway
Also, some top performing Substacks generate enough following and thus resources to build their own platform and go direct to consumer. If the top producers do this this with some consistency the valuation seems quite rich.
And the real question is what have the VC’s seen that doesn’t make them want to invest anymore. Aggregators on the internet are winner take all, but Substack is a far way off from being an aggregator. Yet it is well on its way.
Just factor in for a marketplace that eventually they build their own payment processor, and usually increase the transaction fee and they start adding stuff like seller services. So that 10% will go a bit northward or 20% and could potentially reach 30% for some areas. Could.... not would.
Also didn’t notice the terms on the mail. Is it equity we are being asked to invest or a convertible loan?
Loved the piece and the analysis. As a former cap markets banker also 100% agree with your approach re building a register. If only they spoke to the people already on their platform with the experience... the trouble is that they think some douche 2 year old in Palo Alto knows better
Their Form C (required by Reg CF) appeared on EDGAR a week or so ago, the numbers included are for 2020 and 2021. The 2022 numbers should appear soon, IIRC they have 120 days from FY close to make them available.
Agreed- but that is why they are pushing internally generated subscribers- saying Substack is the nest way to grow that. Substack network has been my biggest source last two months anyway
Also, some top performing Substacks generate enough following and thus resources to build their own platform and go direct to consumer. If the top producers do this this with some consistency the valuation seems quite rich.
And the real question is what have the VC’s seen that doesn’t make them want to invest anymore. Aggregators on the internet are winner take all, but Substack is a far way off from being an aggregator. Yet it is well on its way.
Just factor in for a marketplace that eventually they build their own payment processor, and usually increase the transaction fee and they start adding stuff like seller services. So that 10% will go a bit northward or 20% and could potentially reach 30% for some areas. Could.... not would.
Also didn’t notice the terms on the mail. Is it equity we are being asked to invest or a convertible loan?
Russell. Are you trying to be cancelled by the algos?!
I thought I was pretty reasonable. TBH if you really want to build loyalty a valuation that was cheap would have been a smarter play....
Loved the piece and the analysis. As a former cap markets banker also 100% agree with your approach re building a register. If only they spoke to the people already on their platform with the experience... the trouble is that they think some douche 2 year old in Palo Alto knows better