Eh.... If this happens, everyone will sell what they can sell. And gold is one of those things. Same as what happened in May with Turkey selling, only much wider now.
IDK, it's been a very long while since I made a bond price but to me, being short TLT or being able to "create" shares in TLT looks like a very good way to hedge a book full of the awful "off the run" issues at the long end of the curve.
Hi Russell, excellent insight as usual. One question: when you short TLT, does your prime broker credit positive interest to your short TLT cash proceeds? For small punters like me using Schwab or even Interactive Brokers, there is no credit on short cash proceeds, making the negative interest on the short TLT more onerous. And with TLT replacing old, low coupon T-bonds in-kind with higher coupon T-Bonds, the negative interest bill tab can be substantial. When gold is runnning bull, the short TLT negative interest is easier to take, but when gold is in a bear, the short TLT interest can be be a psychological impediment to waiting for the trade to move in your direction?
all CB heads talk hawkish but when crisis hits CB heads turn dovish and flood market with insane liquidity, next crisis will be many times of what we have seen from Covid (USD5trn) as leveraged assets manifolded, so more money/liquidity needed to remain solvent, gold move to USD10k and beyond very realistic until 2030, miners will manifold from here...just the beginning, GO FOR GOLD!
Eh.... If this happens, everyone will sell what they can sell. And gold is one of those things. Same as what happened in May with Turkey selling, only much wider now.
IDK, it's been a very long while since I made a bond price but to me, being short TLT or being able to "create" shares in TLT looks like a very good way to hedge a book full of the awful "off the run" issues at the long end of the curve.
I remember trying to sell some treasuries during Covid - small size maybe US20m. Took two days
Good letter to The Economist. Hope it gets published and also hope someone in HMT reads it!
Chance would be a fine thing... 😏
Hi Russell, excellent insight as usual. One question: when you short TLT, does your prime broker credit positive interest to your short TLT cash proceeds? For small punters like me using Schwab or even Interactive Brokers, there is no credit on short cash proceeds, making the negative interest on the short TLT more onerous. And with TLT replacing old, low coupon T-bonds in-kind with higher coupon T-Bonds, the negative interest bill tab can be substantial. When gold is runnning bull, the short TLT negative interest is easier to take, but when gold is in a bear, the short TLT interest can be be a psychological impediment to waiting for the trade to move in your direction?
If you can't get the cash proceeds from a short TLT... then long TBT might work... although I am pretty sure that is future based.. so not optimal
Not that I cannot get the cash proceeds - the cash proceeds is credited to my account, I just don’t earn interests on it.
Sorry - I meant the carry
looking for the blowup, watch the repo market and swap spreads
Yes - but I am not sure how much warning it will give.
all CB heads talk hawkish but when crisis hits CB heads turn dovish and flood market with insane liquidity, next crisis will be many times of what we have seen from Covid (USD5trn) as leveraged assets manifolded, so more money/liquidity needed to remain solvent, gold move to USD10k and beyond very realistic until 2030, miners will manifold from here...just the beginning, GO FOR GOLD!
GS was saying gold call option buying has largely disappeared. Will post tomorrow