A couple of years ago, I gave back money and closed down the fund I was managing. It was not an easy decision, but it was the right decision. I have always strived to be honest, open, thoughtful and logical in how I manage money. And by 2021, I honestly did not understand markets anymore. The old model, where I looking at Japanese investment flows to understand movements in currencies and bond yields no longer worked. Even in 2022, which saw very weak equity market, unlike previous bear markets, the Yen was weak which was very much counter to my old investing model.
I have been adjusting my model to account for political changes, what I call a pro-labour shift. It has increase the predictive power of my “intellectual model” greatly. And in recent months, some of the predictions it makes about markets are starting to come through. And as mentioned in a previous post, I can see a potential for a new fund management business in applying this model. But before I rush out and set up a new fund, I thought it would make sense to show how the ideas work in a real money world. And for those of you who know me, I am very much a “eat what I cook” type of manager. So below is a very close approximation of my personal portfolio. I made no changes to my personal portfolio over the month, so I present performance on a monthly basis. I will also give some monthly commentary. The biggest difference to the newsletter I used to publish when I ran money, is that I will disclose individual short positions, as I am not large enough to be short squeezed (see Melvin Capital).
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