I thought I would give you an update on where I am going with this newsletter.
First some background. My investing style over the years was made up of a process that I call the Three Ms - Macro, Micro and Market.
“Macro” would be looking at currencies, exchange rates, interest rates and commodities, and working out where all of these factors would go, or react to changes in the world. Posts on food inflation, Japan or bonds fit in this bucket.
“Micro” would be deep dive on industries and companies, looking for opportunities either long or short to make money. Posts on clearinghouses, credit card cartels or shale oil fit in this bucket
“Market” was then looking at technicals of when to put these trades on. Posts on “buy the dip or sell the rip” fit in this bucket.
For years this process worked well, but then in 2016 things really began to change. Macro no longer followed the script, and assets would not trade the way I thought they would. A good example of that this year is that the problems at LME and other clearinghouses should have been disasters for big banks, and in my view led to a big yen rally, for example. In reality the clearinghouse problems just washed away like tears in the rain.
But writing this newsletter has allowed me to get my thoughts straight on macro, which means I can now focus more on the second part of my research process, which is micro. This will be looking at big trades, both long and short. This reason I am telling you this, is should expect my posts to be a little less frequent, but more detailed, as I am going to do that thing called research!
One other question I get asked is whether I am going to go back to running money. The answer is not for a few years. Stepping back from the stress and time pressure of managing money has made room for other parts of my life to bloom. And these parts of my life make me very happy, as well as provide stimulus for some very interesting investment ideas. Newsletter writing gives me the time to write about finance, and do these other things that I enjoy so much.
One final thing I feel that I should say is that, unfortunately, Substack is going the way of twitter, where it has become a free-for-all in trying to attract subscribers and attention. This will never be my business model. What I am aiming to achieve is a critical mass of paying subscribers who want someone looking at totally different things within an understandable framework, and they are happy to invest £350 a year to have access to that thinking. If that describes what you want, then I urge you to become a paid subscriber. The more paid subscribers I get, the more interesting research I can do.
Anyway, I will leave it there. I appreciate your support and time.
Stay safe
Russell
NEWSLETTER - PHASE II