and besides that, because of the western sanctions, China is also forced to bring up its own complete semis Suply chains as soon as possible. Therefore, already without the effects of high prices on creation of the new capacity (which for sure will be some), there will be very roughly "triplication" of the existing supply chains.
There does seem to be a real constraint to be cutting edge - even Intel is struggling. For me, the stage is set for innovation to upend the industry - but I dont know when that will be.
How ironic that a manufacturing (albeit very complex, capital intensive and high-tech) sector ends up hitting neo-malthusian constraints, rather than an extractive industry (petroleum).
Perhaps the Prebisch-Singer thesis was right after all: in the last 20 years the Industrialisation of (mostly China) drove the price of raw materials to all time highs vs that of capital goods, might this trend structurally reverse?
After driving the terms of trade against itself, China (and Japan, S Korea & Taiwan) might now gain viz Russia & Saudi Arabia?
Semis may be cyclical but many are designs and patents which are more innovative and the sky is the limit what you can design
Oversupply of semis will for sure come, now with even much higher certainty than in previous cycles, at first place because of geopolitical reasons
I agree - if you look at lagging edge semis. But for the moment, TSMC has an effective monopoly on leading logic chips.
and besides that, because of the western sanctions, China is also forced to bring up its own complete semis Suply chains as soon as possible. Therefore, already without the effects of high prices on creation of the new capacity (which for sure will be some), there will be very roughly "triplication" of the existing supply chains.
The West (especially the US) is heavily subsidizing and pressing for replication of the Asian (Taiwan & S. Korea) Semis supply chains in the US.
There does seem to be a real constraint to be cutting edge - even Intel is struggling. For me, the stage is set for innovation to upend the industry - but I dont know when that will be.
How ironic that a manufacturing (albeit very complex, capital intensive and high-tech) sector ends up hitting neo-malthusian constraints, rather than an extractive industry (petroleum).
Perhaps the Prebisch-Singer thesis was right after all: in the last 20 years the Industrialisation of (mostly China) drove the price of raw materials to all time highs vs that of capital goods, might this trend structurally reverse?
After driving the terms of trade against itself, China (and Japan, S Korea & Taiwan) might now gain viz Russia & Saudi Arabia?
I don't know - but I like the thinking