This is a follow up to “rethinking the short book”. Most of the comments were along the lines of a “too early to panic”, which is fair enough. My old investment model has been flashing bearishly (incorrectly) on the US for 6 years now, so this substack has been trying to find a new investment model. The model that I have been focusing on is a “food inflation” model. And the trade it has inspired is the GLD/TLT trade, which continues to do well.
As I talk about my own portfolio, this is a paid post.