Back in 2025, I shorted Nvidia on the back of the DeepSeek LLM model - but fortunately covered at a profit. It seemed very logical to me that the appearance of a much cheaper LLM model should be deflationary across the whole AI stack. But this analysis was wrong.
Today, we are seeing another sell off in tech, on the back of announcement that Chinese chip company CXMT has made a breakthrough in memory chips.
To be honest, Deepseek methods seemed to me to be very replicable, and so very likely to change the industry, while CXMT claims are very hard to verify, and also much easier to be kept out of the western AI chain. In other words, if DeepSeek was not a problem, then I struggle to think that CXMT will be either. That being said, its a good time to run through my AI checklist to see if its time to either get out of the way, buy the dip or that greatest feeling of all, time to short!
