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Muscle memory says deflation, politics says inflation

Last month the Economist published this cover. From this date, 2 year Treasury yield has fallen from 5% to 3.7% today. The Economist remains undefeated in its ability to top tick market trends!

The cause of so much deflationary angst is the meltdown in US (and now European banks). Collapsing regional bank shares in 2007, Covid and now are all seen as a deflationary signal.

Add to this a collapsing banks share prices, and an oil price in 70s, you have a perfect deflation set up.

However I think China has really changed the game here.

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Capital Flows and Asset Markets
Russell Clark